Busted Flush Draw Theroem

[alphatmw]

k, not a theorem but just some thoughts i had recently.

if the action on a hand gets to the river and there were 2 suits on the flop, you should be much less willing to bluff, all else being equal. you should also be much more willing to value bet marginal hands.

this applies even more if 1) you check or called a bet on the flop, 2) check or called a bet on the turn, and 3) was not the preflop raiser

the applies less if the opposite of these are true.

this also means you should float more infrequently on flops with 2 suits. you should also probably float more rainbow flops and set up bluffs on these flops as well.

this is obviously cause when you bet the river, the first thought into almost anyone's mind will be "is he on a busted flush draw?" i can't remember many instances of "hero calls" on rainbow boards but people love to sniff out busted flush draw bluffs.

thoughts? is this obvious? is it less relevant than i'm thinking it is?

[mvdgaag]

I think it is less relevant that you think it is. But it's all true and worth considering every time. I think these mistakes by your opponents not made very frequently and will hardly dictate the outcome of a certain decision to make though.

[RobNottsUk]

Don't follow this!

If you have a busted draw against you, then you generally want to induce a bluff, rather than value bet. Inducing a bluff may mean check-ing, or betting small. When 2nd to act with opponent on a busted draw (apparently), surely you want to value bet less, as they are less likely to have a pay off hand?

But obviously these decisions are opponent specific.

If you were on a draw, and opponent appears to have been to, you must bet, to take the pot, provoking an incorrect fold. Of course, against very passive players, who would not call without having you beaten, and will definitely call on river, this would be an error.

Now if you are calling, and put opponent on a draw, and now they check the river, you just played your hand badly; and don't deserve to get paid!