Overthinking top set?

AllinDan · #1 02-09-2007, 04:58 PM

From today's $50+5. Only read on opponent is that he doubled up by 3betting AK pf and getting it all in on a K high flop.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1375)
UTG+1 (t2750)
MP1 (t1440)
MP2 (t6900)
MP3 (t350)
CO (t4305)
Button (t2295)
Hero (t2845)
BB (t2000)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button raises to t175, Hero calls t150, BB folds

Flop: (t400) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: (t400) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t275, Button raises to t700, Hero calls t425

River: (t1800) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t1420 (All-in),
Hero??

Options are of course: 3 betting pf, leading flop, shoving turn, calling or folding river. I'm honestly not sure whether I was trying to check/call or check/raise the flop, though leaning toward a raise.

At first I just assumed he had missed overs and had decided not to c-bet, but he could definitely check behind with 56 or two big hearts.

I'm more concerned here with the line that got me to the river though I definitely had to think about river decision for a while.

Thoughts?

Bond18 · #2 02-09-2007, 05:22 PM

Shove that turn.

DDBeast · #3 02-09-2007, 05:26 PM

You could reraise pf. I bet out the flop, way too drawy to let him peel for free. Turn card sucks but you still have to push. Had I called the turn I would've pushed the river. Had I checked the river and he pushed it would be a very easy call.

AllinDan · #4 02-09-2007, 05:37 PM

definitely agree on shoving turn after he raises. When I called I didn't really stop to think about my river plan at all and its so gross if a 4th heart falls.

I'm not so sure about leading flop though, the only draws I'm really worried about are hearts and 56, and it's unlikely for him to have those, and more likely to have, well, nothing, a nothing that might be able to improve to a second best hand even if he checks. I also think a lot of players will lead a draw there and just try to take it down.

DDBeast · #5 02-09-2007, 05:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
definitely agree on shoving turn after he raises. When I called I didn't really stop to think about my river plan at all and its so gross if a 4th heart falls.

I'm not so sure about leading flop though, the only draws I'm really worried about are hearts and 56, and it's unlikely for him to have those, and more likely to have, well, nothing, a nothing that might be able to improve to a second best hand even if he checks. I also think a lot of players will lead a draw there and just try to take it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's soooo many draws. T9, 65, 96, hearts, a wide variety of gutshots.

kindling · #6 02-09-2007, 05:43 PM

I would definitely have bet out on the flop, to make the drawing hands pay for a card.

My question is: If you had bet out on the flop (assume PSB), and gotten a call, do you shut down when the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes on the turn? Or do you continue to bet it, thinking that you should have forced the drawing hands out?

I'm expecting in a $50 tourney that people should realize that the implied odds aren't there to call a PSB on the flop, and should have folded all but the best draws. In a $3 tourney, I would expect to see lots of bad draws calling, so I wouldn't be so sure.

Or am I overestimating the competition at the $50 level?

DDBeast · #7 02-09-2007, 05:44 PM

If a 3rd heart comes on the turn, you should still come out firing and not folding. There's a shitton of non flush hands he can have and you still need protection, perhaps even moreso than on the flop.

Fiksdal · #8 02-09-2007, 05:51 PM

I like the flop check FWIW. I expect villain to c-bet here.

Edit: flop CHECK

AllinDan · #9 02-09-2007, 05:53 PM

yeah I'm dumb obviously T9, I'd discount 96 a little more just because of the pf raise, but I still think most players will tend to bet that flop when checked to with most holdings and that is likely the only way to get more money from most hands. My hand also isn't as vulnerable as say, A8 or JJ because of redraws to the FH.

AllinDan · #10 02-09-2007, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop bet FWIW. I expect villain to c-bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you mean check, right?