edges and information

[mvdgaag]

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In my book it's the equity you gain by another player folding compensated for the chance he'll fold.

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I read and understood your entire post. I think you technically know what fold equity means.

However, I would like to point out that I think fold equity is generally used only in situations where you want a fold. In other words, in situations where your pot equity is less than 50% (i.e. you are behind), you might factor in fold equity such that your overall equity (fold+pot) is now better than 50%, you will want to bet in that situation.


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I agree.

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If you want a call (i.e. your pot equity is more than 50%), I don't see how fold equity is a concern.

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You want them to call instead of fold for better EV.

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So in response to OP, I stated he no longer has fold equity which really means fold equity is not a concern for his strategy as he laid it out.

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[mvdgaag]

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Well since hero is so tight I'm just pushing every single hand. He'll be folding over 90% of the time. The few times he raises I'll know to fold (depending on stack sizes etc.)unless my cards beat his range.

Messing around with the 99 or TT doesn't matter much.


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I agree, the strategy sucks and if far too tight, but that doesn't answer the questions.

[tsearcher]

I forgot to add that we also need to know the blind size. But generally, villains have a huge edge over hero for all three conditions. Mixing up the 99 and TT only changes Hero's range by less than 1%. He is still folding too much and will blind away. As far as calling hero with equal stacks, you may as well never call him since your edge over him is so great the rest of the time.

[AKQJ10]

Right, I'm very bad at defining FE. mvdgaag is technically correct but getting worse hands to fold is beside the point of FE.

AA is 77:23 over T9s (no common suit) preflop. If AA raises and T9s folds, AA has technically realized some fold equity by virtue of T9s forfeiting its claim to 23% of the blinds. But that's relatively little compared to 77% of the money that goes in if T9s calls, so AA would obviously rather get called.

So every hand has FE, but generally speaking this only matters to the best hand if it's not a huge favorite, and if the "fresh money" being bet is small compared to the money in the pot (which is usually the case in limit poker).

Feel free to update the wiki's definition if you can explain this succinctly.

[mvdgaag]

The wiki definition sounds fine to me:

'Fold equity refers to the value that a hand has simply by betting or raising such that all opposing hands, including better hands, may fold. ...'

Or is it updated already? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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So every hand has FE

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I would not try to mentally connect hands to FE. It is the action of betting/raising that 'has' FV.
You could be holding AA or 72o, but have the exact same FE if you bet with it. This is because FE is (mainly) determined by your image, the texture of the board, the size of the bet/raise and your opponents hands.

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generally speaking this only matters to the best hand if it's not a huge favorite

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It is more profitable to make use of high FE with these hands, but with very favorable hands it is still very important. You make more money if your opponents call, so if you have a hand that is a huge favorite and you figure you have high FE you don't want to bet/raise too much or maybe just check for a higher expexted value.
Another thing is when you consider bluffing; a huge FE will mean that your bluff will mostly work, while almost no FE will mean you shouldn't try a bluff.

In other words: FE is the main factor determining the success of bluffs and semibluffs (this is what I think you are referring to) but also the thing that determines if you should valuebet or slowplay a huge hand.

[tsearcher]

Maybe, I just don't understand the OP's post, but here are the numbers I come up with:



If hero's range is:

TT+, AQs+, AKo

Then villain can call profitably with the following hands:

AA 83%, KK 66%, QQ 53% (The percents are how often villian will win against hero's range)
all other hands are losers.



If hero's range is:

99+, AQs+, AKo

Then villain can call profitably with the following hands: AA 83%, KK 68%, QQ 56%

You'll notice they are the same hands. So switching 99 with TT doesn't matter.


Hero will win the blinds 98.5% of the time he pushes. But he will be stacked 67% of the time when he is called.
If villain drops QQ from his calling range then hero will be stacked 74% of the time.



Since villian knows exactly when to fold, and when to call he has a big edge over hero. Especially if you factor in the fact that hero will fold over 95% of his blind hands.



If you provide more info I can give more precise calculations. But I can't think of any situations where Hero would have an advantage with that range and everyone knowing about it.

[mvdgaag]

Agreed... My answers were based on an advantage compared to the 'original situation'. I misread the post...

The answers should be:

yes, a huge edge
no
they do
yes... Always fold (except for AA-QQ or so) would be a good strategy for them, since you don't bluff... Unless they are very shortstacked and have no choice. Then when you are lucky enough to find one of your hands they might have to call with inferior hands.



All in all: The strategy does not involve bluffing while it should and is far too tight for a end of tournament high blinds situation. Everyone will have to battle the big antes and blinds and try to steal them, so bad hands become more attractive.

[smbruin22]

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wtf are you talking about.

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why do you post a question and then start your response to the first response with the above quote? geez, you're asking others for help, and then you "WTF" them.

pretty tight raising range... if your opponent know your exact range, it's pretty bad.... and whether your opponent knows whether you're going with 99 but NOT with TT realistically won't make much difference as it's only .45% of hands each...

uber-tight predictable pushing range is bad.

[mvdgaag]

I'll push any suited ace, pocket pair or both cards T+ when I'm down to around 10 big blinds. I'll push with nothing around 5% of the time, when I think the table is weak.

What do you guys think, too loose/tight?

[tsearcher]

mvdgaag, to answer your question I'll need more info. Is it a cash game or tournament. If it is a tournament, I need payout structure, blind sizes, number of players and their ranges and everyone's stack size.

The best place to learn short stacked play for ring games would be to read Ed Miller's GSIH and to visit his website. You'll also find some more info on the Head's Up section of this site.

As far as short stacked tournament play, the best place to look is the 1-table tournaments faq on this site. The info there is pretty specific as regards to final table play on MTT's and all short stacked situations in SNG's. For playing short stacked in a MTT when you are not at the final table, read HOH 2, and Kill Phil and check out the MTT part of this site.