HSNL prop bet - Page 2

iceman5 · #11 01-13-2007, 01:08 PM

Im not saying this cant be done, in fact I would lean towards thinking it could be done maybe 75% of the time by a good player, but comparing 4 buy-in swings playing $5/$10 and 4 buy-in swings playing .5/$1 is a not a good idea.

I have much much bigger swings at 5/10 than I do at any lower stakes.

KRANTZ · #12 01-13-2007, 01:10 PM

i agree with ahnuld, i could do this with my eyes closed

SlowHabit · #13 01-13-2007, 01:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, you do realize that the fact that variance causes you to swing doesn't really make THAT big of a difference? You could just as well start out losing as winning and then all those swings up and down will still obviously not get you ahead by 400. Those 4k swings you are talking about doesn't necessarily mean you are at +4k all too often.

[/ QUOTE ]
Once you're up over 4 buy-ins (or 5 buy-ins if you want to be safe), just play premium hands and don't play for stacks until you have the nuts.

Then you would win the prop bet.

MDMA · #14 01-13-2007, 01:15 PM

Uncatchablefish: Of course the fact that we only need to be up $400 at one point helps our bet, but I really doubt it's enough to make up for the sheer amount of money you'd need to be up at some point over 50% of the time.

MDMA · #15 01-13-2007, 01:19 PM

Slowhabit: You do realize there is a TIME FACTOR as well, right?

SlowHabit · #16 01-13-2007, 01:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Slowhabit: You do realize there is a TIME FACTOR as well, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I know there's a time factor.

Which is why I added "5 buy-ins to be safe."

And if you really want to angle shoot, run the timer down every time it's your turn to act. This works best on Stars where they give you minutes to make a decision after playing on a table for a while.

MDMA · #17 01-13-2007, 01:33 PM

Bah, you didn't even get that the bet would finish as soon as he was up 400, so theres no need for any 5 buyins to be safe or to "draw out on time". If this was the case, the bet would just bet stipulated as "be up at least 400 after 5 hours as passed", and it was not.

I just assumed you actually grasped that part and that you somehow thought playing extremely nitty would make the challenge easier, now I see that you did not.

Post-Oak · #18 01-13-2007, 04:22 PM

You guys bring up some good points. I was aware that I wasn't able to calculate the exact % chance of succes given my assumptions plus an assumed standard deviation, because I wouldn't know how to do the math. In other words, I wasn't sure how much of an effect the variance would have over the 5 hour period.

So the point that he can quit anytime he hits the $400 is mark is well taken. The idea that he can up his variance in case of emergency (time running out or he's down big) is also a good one.

However, I still disagree that it can be done with your "eyes closed".

I am no longer convinced it is +EV for 4 buyins. What if we said $550 instead of $400? I would then be interested in betting. Since you guys think $400 is so easy, I assume you would be willing to consider 5.5 buy-ins instead.

Gregg777 · #19 01-13-2007, 05:06 PM

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I am no longer convinced it is +EV for 4 buyins. What if we said $550 instead of $400? I would then be interested in betting. Since you guys think $400 is so easy, I assume you would be willing to consider 5.5 buy-ins instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apathy · #20 01-13-2007, 08:17 PM

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Uncatchablefish: Of course the fact that we only need to be up $400 at one point helps our bet, but I really doubt it's enough to make up for the sheer amount of money you'd need to be up at some point over 50% of the time.

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MDMA,

Ill offer you the same bet I offered the OP. Pm if interested.