4 players left facing all-in and call with 99 - Page 2

FortunaMaximus · #11 11-09-2006, 02:45 PM

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Couldn't this be a place where cEV <> $EV? But I probably call here anyway, because I don't care about 3rd, I want 1st and winning this pot gives me a good chance to get that.

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How would folding give you a better shot at 3rd?? Then button would have almost 17K, you would have 6K and the other 2 would have 35K. I'd call here with any 2 cards....

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Do the math again, Sparta. Button wins hand, gets over 24k. Button loses hand, SB has 44k. But you'd have 4k after posting SB and basically have to push it in.

Makes it a call probably, but your calculator needs an upgrade.

registrar · #12 11-09-2006, 02:45 PM

I very much doubt whether this is a real hand.

The point is that if OP's read is that SB has a monster, then we come fourth because button starts the hand with 10 more chips than we do, whereas if we fold, we're more or less guaranteed third.

kinheim · #13 11-09-2006, 02:49 PM

some thoughts,

call, win 30k ( 41%)chips and 1200 dollars
call, lose 600 dollars
fold button wins = 600 dollars + 11 % of chips
fold sb wins = 1200 dollars + 11% of chips

Button range= any pocket pair, any two face cards, any ace.
SB range= two high cards, any middle pair, aces middle kicker..

lets say you win about 30% here,

that means that 70 % of the time you only win 600 , and 30 % you have 41 % of chips and 1200 bucks.

if you fold and button vs sb is 45 to 55, wich means that 55 % of time you got 10 k stack 600 bucks and 11 % of chips.
45 % of time you have 10 k stack 1200 bucks and 11 % of chips.

i geuss it all depends on what range you got button and sb on.. if your odds on winning against two opps are better than 35% i thinks calling isnt a bad option

HerbieGRD · #14 11-09-2006, 02:50 PM

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I very much doubt whether this is a real hand.

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VERY thinly veiled $EV vs CEV question - couldn't we have given button like 11K to at least make it feasible?

FortunaMaximus · #15 11-09-2006, 02:54 PM

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I very much doubt whether this is a real hand.

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VERY thinly veiled $EV vs CEV question - couldn't we have given button like 11K to at least make it feasible?

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Yup.

mouseman · #16 11-09-2006, 02:57 PM

It's a real hand. Actually button had 25 more chips than me.

elstunar · #17 11-09-2006, 03:40 PM

Well, if we put this problem in the context of a regular STT. OK, everyone is guaranteed $600 no matter what, so that $600 is irrelevant. Thus subtract $600 from each prize and 4th place is $0, 3rd is $600, 2nd is $1200, and 1st is $1900. This is somewhat similar to a bubble situation for a STT and I think that it is somewhat +$EV here to fold, but if you want to win, call this, if maximizing $EV is most important, i would lean towards folding probably given your read of SB

CanisLupinus · #18 11-09-2006, 05:01 PM

Had a similar play happen to me. I was OTB, and had four all-ins in front of me, with pocket 8's. Play was very low quality, as it was a low entry fee tourney.

I called, as I was getting 4:1, with only 6 hands beating me, and everything else drawin on me. My hunch was that most of them went in with either, high unpaired paint, or A-X.

Turns out they all had A-X, with no X being higher than my 8s. Couldn't have turned out better for me if I tried. They were all crippled by each other, which left me in the driver seat.

JoseGonzlez · #19 11-09-2006, 05:02 PM

id call here once and twice on sunday.
i think your hand is better than the other two not factoring in any payouts scales.

nath · #20 11-09-2006, 05:29 PM

ok, i'll assume this is a real hand.

if you think you have a tell that SB has a huge hand, then yes, you can fold, because 99 is huge fourhanded but unlikely to win against two hands, and since SB is likely to have button crushed, a fold will almost certainly result in doubling your $EV. a call on the other hand puts you in a situation where you may be as low as 15% to win and probably no better than about 40%.