150 BB Turned Set. Don't do this very often

MTBlue · #1 09-04-2006, 12:33 AM

Villain is ICHECKDARK twoplustwo limidonk turned Multitabling TAG Runs at like 19/15/3.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($1567)
Button ($2128)
SB ($708.70)
BB ($1764.17)
UTG ($1993)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7

, 7

. SB posts a blind of $5.
UTG raises to $35, Hero calls $35, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $30, 1 fold.

Flop: ($115) K

, 5

, A

(3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($115) 7

(3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $111, Hero raises to $400, SB folds, UTG calls $1847 (All-In), Hero?

LuckyDice · #2 09-04-2006, 12:38 AM

I really don't see how you can fold.

cts · #3 09-04-2006, 12:43 AM

Instacall. Btw I think I figured out your sn from a BBV thread and you are v v solid, gl at the tables.

DJ Sensei · #4 09-04-2006, 12:55 AM

Would he ever check AK on the flop? I think thats what it comes down to. Its certainly tricky since he's very aggro.

MTBlue · #5 09-04-2006, 12:59 AM

I couldn't see it b/c of the two outer possibility. He'll never get action unless he is beat.

DJ Sensei · #6 09-04-2006, 01:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't see it b/c of the two outer possibility. He'll never get action unless he is beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I don't really see him checking AK here on the flop either. Really the only non-higher-set possibility here is 8c6c or 6c4c, but those are rare, will often just call your turn raise with implieds, and aren't very far behind you anyhow...

I think folding here is aight.

MTBlue · #7 09-04-2006, 01:12 AM

Would you please elaborate?

cts · #8 09-04-2006, 01:14 AM

I really don't see VP checking a set on this flop 150BBs deep, I dunno he seems to play pretty fast.

MTBlue · #9 09-04-2006, 01:20 AM

At the time I couldn't remember he EVER checking a flop. This may be off slightly but he fires close to 85% ime of the time and on this particular flop he takes the pot down 75% of the time against these villains. So I couldn't come up with what he would check then push the turn.

I really hate this spot. I'm pretty sure he leads 555 and AK on the flop. And he's folding 86c 64c most of the time under the gun so together they are worth maybe 1 combo. There are 6 combos of AA KK and 1 combo (maybe worth 1/2 he's not pushing it everytime) 86c 64c. I'll give him a stone cold I hate you bluff for maybe 1 combo (maybe less multitablers tend to play their cards, especially to aggression). If this things are weighted right I got it that i am behind like 75% of the time.

I'd like to hear a good argument for a call b/c I hate folding sets.

aislephive · #10 09-04-2006, 01:27 AM

I'm usually a proponent of the "never fold a set!" mentality, but it looks so badly like AA/KK I think this is a fold. If he is semi-bluffing with a big draw he picked up on the turn, he would have to have some garbage suited one gapper, and I don't think a 19/15 raises that hand normally UTG, he may a small percentage of the time. There is a smallish chance of AK, but I'm pretty sure he would bet this flop since as stated before he is only going to get action on the turn if somebody hits their two outer set or maybe their gutshot. AA/KK is a definite possibillity, even if he rarely slowplays he knows that it has to be in his arsenal, and this is a great flop to slowplay a pretty much lock hand. I think that this is a great spot to consider folding a set. I have yet to fold a set for fear of losing to a higher set, so I probably would call, but if I thought it through I could make a crying fold I think.