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#11
05-20-2006, 05:37 PM
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Re: Pay Off Here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 3:1 means you are putting in 1/4 of the final pot should you call. Which means you have to be good 25 percent of the time not 33 percent. [/ QUOTE ] (18+8+8=32)/8 = 4.25:1 = 25%.... [/ QUOTE ] Your off. 4:1 is 20 percent. 3:1 is 25. You put in 1 of the 3. So total theres 4 and you put in 1 which is 1/4 the total or 25 percent. Btw 18+8+8=34 but you gotta factor in the rake so you get 32.30. A lil over 25 percent if you want to be exact. A weak ace calls you twice then value bets the river cuz he thinks your FOS. Not to mention some kings its not 100 percent a flush.. 
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#12
05-20-2006, 05:38 PM
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Re: Pay Off Here?
[ QUOTE ]
I potted the flop and turn under the usual thinking that I had the best hand and needed to punish anyone who was drawing. Now after making Aces-up on the river and considering the underbet the general thinking is I should pay off here less I make myself completely bluffable. Yet in my experience at this level villain has the flush 100% of the time here. Should I save the $8? [/ QUOTE ] Well, I don't like potting the turn. A good player would stick in a raise, which would be very confusing/expensive for you. Second, I think that you shouldn't worry about being bluffable here. This river screams value bet and only a weak player would bet a hand worse than Aces up here any significant amount of the time. In addition, if you fold here, you can pay off next time when there is a greater probability that someone is taking a shot at you. Just my $0.02. --AD
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#14
05-20-2006, 05:49 PM
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Re: Pay Off Here?
[ QUOTE ]
Does anybody else prefer that Hero leads the river for $8-$10 rather than the other way around and fold to a raise? [/ QUOTE ] I'm not a fan of this. It makes it very easy for villain to bluff us. Secondly, our hand is very good for picking off a bluff. I prefer calling rather than betting and potentially getting knocked off the winning hand.
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#16
05-20-2006, 06:19 PM
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Re: Pay Off Here?
Thanks for the replies guys. If anyone cares, I went ahead and grudgingly made the call. Villain showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for the flush. Poker's great.
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#17
05-20-2006, 06:22 PM
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Re: Pay Off Here?
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies guys. If anyone cares, I went ahead and grudgingly made the call. Villain showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for the flush. Poker's great. [/ QUOTE ] I said in my 1st post that it felt like a value betted flush. I still think we need to make the crying call here.
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#18
05-20-2006, 06:23 PM
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Re: Pay Off Here?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a fan of this. It makes it very easy for villain to bluff us. [/ QUOTE ] it's not easier to bluff a bet than a check. [ QUOTE ] Secondly, our hand is very good for picking off a bluff. [/ QUOTE ] I can't imagine a hand that calls the flop and turn and feels the need to bluff the river. PS: that being said I don't like blocking bets below $100NL unless you have a read, players are just not agressive enough.
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#19
05-20-2006, 06:23 PM
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Re: Pay Off Here?
fwiw, i don't think villain played this so badly postflop (preflop is of course horrendous). i like a bigger bet on the river, but he has pretty much the implied odds he needs to call your turn bet if he thinks you'll pay off on the river. there is just not much you can do here.
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#20
05-20-2006, 06:25 PM
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Re: Pay Off Here?
[ QUOTE ]
fwiw, i don't think villain played this so badly postflop (preflop is of course horrendous). i like a bigger bet on the river, but he has pretty much the implied odds he needs to call your turn bet if he thinks you'll pay off on the river. there is just not much you can do here. [/ QUOTE ] his turn call is horrible.
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