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  #21  
Old 11-30-2007, 04:48 AM
pwnsall pwnsall is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

[ QUOTE ]
similar ideas of 'not wanting to score too quickly' have been tossed around before but I'm not sure a team has actually intentionally allowed a team to score to get the ball back.

This probably might become more interesting if the team with the ball is trailing by 1 instead.
Again, it's 2nd and 1 on the 10 with 1:40 left and the defending team has no time-outs.

If you let him score a TD right now then you get the ball back with about 1:30 left trailing by either 5 or 7.
If you stop them from getting a FG then you will get the ball back with about :15 left trailing by 2.

Has to be better chances with the first option.

[/ QUOTE ]
GB Denver SB but that was tied and probably the right decision tho I don't remember specifics.
I'd guess
19%
39%
1%
have to be stats about this somewhere.
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  #22  
Old 11-30-2007, 04:52 AM
MicroBob MicroBob is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

part 3 has to be more than 1% I would think.
There's 2:30 to go AND 2 time-outs left for crying out loud. Very easy for some team to score a TD with 1:00 left or something.
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  #23  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:01 AM
EWS87 EWS87 is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

1. Two good equally matched football teams. Two and a half minutes to go in the game. The team losing by 5 is on their own 20 and has two time outs left. About how often will they score a touchdown?...16%



2. Same situation but they are down by one point. About how often will they score a field goal (assuming they have a good field goal kicker.)...37%

3. Same as above. Down by one. About how often will they surprisingly score an unneeded touchdown?...11%


EXTRA CREDIT

Tell me what I am driving at
that internet players are better then kenny tran
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  #24  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:09 AM
Francis_MH Francis_MH is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

[ QUOTE ]
no idea what you're driving at here.

I was thinking of a different math-football thing and will mention it here instead of in a new thread:

Team is up by 7. 2nd and 1 on the opposing 10 with 1:40 left.
Team that is trailing has no time-outs left.

It's my contention that the team that is losing should allow the winning team to score a TD right now if they will take it.
If winning team gets a 1st down they can run the clock out.
If losing team is able to stop them on 2nd and 1 and 3rd and 1 then the winning team will kick a FG to take a 10 point lead and the trailing team will get the ball back with about 10 or 15 seconds I think.

Trying to score 10 points in 15 seconds has to be more difficult than trying to score 14 points in almost 1:40. Both are really unlikely of course but the 2nd one is at least somewhat possible.

Of course, if the attacking team was especially smart then the runner would get the first down and then would fall down shy of the end-zone while the other team is trying to let him score.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about this as I was watching the GB-Dallas game. Similar situation, around the 2 minute warning GB was down by 7, Dallas had the ball at around GB's 20. Clearly in FG position. I would think it would be much better to let Dallas score a TD before the 2 minute warning and being down 14 with in essence 2 TO's left that be down 10 with 1 minute left and no TO's (which is exactly what happened.)

BTW, what coached would think like this? Shanahan most likely. Belichick? I think so.
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  #25  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:14 AM
CieloAzor CieloAzor is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

2 and a half minutes is a lot of time and teams can do awfully well when using all 4 downs

40%
60%
10%

I thought the point he was driving at was that a team trailing by 1 should be content to stop short of the goal line and set up a chip shot FG as time expires, rather than scoring a TD and leaving the other team time to march the other way.

Regarding the Redskins/Eagles game, the Redskins did admit after the game that they had let Westbrook score, and Westbrook responded that if he'd known they were letting him score, he would have kneeled at the 1. All players should be instructed NOT to score unnecessary TDs in spots such as that.
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  #26  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:16 AM
Victor Victor is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

20
40
2.5
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  #27  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:42 AM
David Sklansky David Sklansky is offline
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Default Here\'s The Situation

First let me say that the general principle in this and many of these scenarios, is the average person or coach's incorrect gut feeling about going for ties that have to be played off. They just don't gamble enough when they can go for the win. Two 70% shots are an underdog but it doesn't feel that way to a non gambler. Thus they go for two point shots, bunt, punt, etc. etc. when they shouldn't. Or sometimes go for one extra point rather than two. This isn't just my opinion. Many experts have shown that some of these errors are egregious. The apologists invoke psychology to defend the coaches. But that is usually disengenuous because the coach had no idea that psychology would have to be his excuse.

But this particular play I have never before seen done, or talked about. Not even by the mathematically inclined. For it to be right you need things to be kind of just so. And you can't fall back on clear cut statistics like you can with the two point conversion, when down by eight, scenario.
Still I believe that what I am about to propose is often the right decision with about five minutes to go in the game. Especially if your team has a good defense and only a so so field goal kicker. Because it comes up so rarely and is most likely close and less obviously provable than other errors, I wouldn't even mention it. Except that it may be an original idea. For now I will state it without going into the relevant calculations. I will leave that to others.

If you score a touchdown with five minutes or so left in the game and that puts you down by exactly four points, go for two.
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  #28  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:51 AM
Bremen Bremen is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding the Redskins/Eagles game, the Redskins did admit after the game that they had let Westbrook score, and Westbrook responded that if he'd known they were letting him score, he would have kneeled at the 1.

[/ QUOTE ]
He should kneel whether they're intentionally letting him score or not. I can't really fault someone for not kneeling though. Besides even if he tried to stop and kneel it would be very easy to hit him from behind and knock him into the end zone. That would be something hilarious to watch; almost as good as Reid challenging to take an INT away from his cornerback (I forget which one it was).
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  #29  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:56 AM
Victor Victor is offline
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Default Re: Here\'s The Situation

ugh.

with 5 min left i dont see much difference between being up 5 or 6. but being up 4 sucks.

5 min is plenty of time for the other team to score and leave some time on the clock. now when we get the ball back
i would much prefer to be driving for the winning field goal, rather than the tie.
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  #30  
Old 11-30-2007, 06:07 AM
David Sklansky David Sklansky is offline
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Default Re: Here\'s The Situation

[ QUOTE ]
ugh.

with 5 min left i dont see much difference between being up 5 or 6. but being up 4 sucks.

5 min is plenty of time for the other team to score and leave some time on the clock. now when we get the ball back
i would much prefer to be driving for the winning field goal, rather than the tie.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a matter of fact I hate going for ties as well so I completely agree with you. You know your football. Reading is another matter.
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