High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers ahoy)

[Taso]

omg, why are you all still talking about the same hand? It wasn't that interesting, really, at all.

[Starfish]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone should do the math on PA running it 1,2,3 times. I'm would think it's slightly more ev for PA to run it as much as possible. As each time Gold does hit, there's less outs the next time. Yes there's less non-outs if Antonius hits. But I wouldn't think that change has as much effect. Or maybe it works out exactly even.

[/ QUOTE ]

They even each others out, because the events when Gold hits happen much more seldom than those when he doesn't. So your pot equity is exactly the same, recardless of the amount of running, once, twice, trice, tenwise...

[gregorio]

[ QUOTE ]
He did give huge tells but PA also isn't a live player for the most part.


[/ QUOTE ]
PA started as a live player and plays in the biggest live cash game in the world, so I think he is probably an ok live player.

[Osprey]

Anyone have any thoughts on the Doyle/Guy hand with K-4 against A-Q, with the final board something like K-5-5-Q-2 with 3 spades on there and Doyle calls the fairly big river bet? Is Guy a bluffing machine or something, because the only thing Doyle is beating is a worse Q or a bluff, really with Guy betting the turn and river. I would have thought Doyle could have gotten away from the hand on the river when the flush came in.

[jjshabado]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have any thoughts on the Doyle/Guy hand with K-4 against A-Q, with the final board something like K-5-5-Q-2 with 3 spades on there and Doyle calls the fairly big river bet? Is Guy a bluffing machine or something, because the only thing Doyle is beating is a worse Q or a bluff, really with Guy betting the turn and river. I would have thought Doyle could have gotten away from the hand on the river when the flush came in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wondering if part of it was that Guys been a card rack and betting a lot because of that. But its possible that the guys at the table don't realize just how lucky he's been and so he just looks kind of aggressive.

Seemed like a bit of a weak call, but I don't really know.

[Kimbell175113]

^ It wasn't a "fairly big river bet." Doyle was getting better than 3:1 iirc.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On season 1 and 2 running it three times meant that one player will scoop the whole pot. That's how I understood it. This was explained by Eli Elezra in one of the episodes where they ran it twice. Running it twice was better according to Eli has it gave to "even it out". I guess I understood the concept wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make much sense to me. If you deal three times, each one should be for 1/3 of the pot. That seems like the best way to minimize the variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

It actually makes no sense at all unless it's exactly a 50/50 proposition. If it's not, and you make it a best of 3 proposition, the guy who's ahead has an even better chance of scooping.

For example, if we assume PA has a 75% chance of winning on each river, and they go for a best of 3, then PA wins 54/64 (84%) and JG wins 10/64 (16%).

Which means it's a really good way to go if you're ahead and your opponent is bad at math.

[/ QUOTE ]

FAIL

[/ QUOTE ]

I dare you to try to explain how what I said was wrong.

Just so that we're clear, we're talking about a scenario where you run it three times and whoever wins 2 or more scoops the whole pot.

If you still think I'm wrong, then ... well, let's just say that people like you make poker fun.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didnt quite understand the sammy's "customer" comment and how that can be interpreted as rude.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont quite get it either,and im not even sure gabe did. I originally thought that he was insulting Guy by saying he would only usually do that to customers, referring to Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

It could be people who play in the big plo game with him.

And customer at least implying that you're a donator, which for someone like PA is pretty offending.

Though I'm sure on the other hand that he doesn't mind if Farha underestimates him.
Didn't Farha refer to him as an "internet player" too in a similar way to how he was talking about Brian last season?

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Someone should do the math on PA running it 1,2,3 times. I'm would think it's slightly more ev for PA to run it as much as possible. As each time Gold does hit, there's less outs the next time. Yes there's less non-outs if Antonius hits. But I wouldn't think that change has as much effect. Or maybe it works out exactly even.

[/ QUOTE ]

the equity doesn't change, only the variance. there are probably 20 posts about it on 2+2.

[/ QUOTE ]

For those who want to be convinced about the math:

running it once:

34/44 for PA and 10/44 for JG

running it twice:

PA scoops 34*33/(43*44) = 1122/1892
split pot 2*34*10/(44*43) = 680/1892
JG scoops 10*9/(44*43) = 90/1892

PA's equity = 1122/1892 + 0.5*680/1892 = 1462/1892 = 34/44 (exactly, no rounding)

running it thrice ...
PA scoops 34*33*32/(44*43*42) = 35904/79464
PA wins twice 3*34*33*10/(44*43*42) = 33660/79464
JG wins twice 3*34*10*9/(44*43*42) = 9180/79464
JG scoops 10*9*8/(44*43*42) = 720/79464

PA's equity = 35904/79464 + (2/3)*33660/79464 + (1/3)*9180/79464 = 61404/79464 = 34/44 (exactly, no rounding)

[Rushstreet07]

U can play ATC preflop if u know what ur opponent has
__________________________________________________ _______

Thanks for the info tom scott scott tom