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#41
10-12-2007, 10:40 PM
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Re: How often is this a bluff?
it appears to me like he is hardly ever bluffing here, but he probably has TT-KK and is scared of the ace.
i think it's up to you what you do. i'd say if you think he will fold an underpair here, then you should turn your hand into a 2 out semibluff (lol). otherwise fold 
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#42
10-12-2007, 10:48 PM
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Re: How often is this a bluff?
calling the turn is pretty bad imo. he has us beat 90%+ of the time, and isn't folding to a river bet with the great pot odds. you will both check down the river.
you have a chance to snatch the pot now he has told you he is pretty scared, and hopefully he isn't being sneaky with a set, or floated OOP w AK or AQ. you lose your chance to win the pot if you call. so i say it is a clear raise or fold situation on the turn
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#44
10-12-2007, 11:26 PM
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Re: How often is this a bluff?
Alobar -
I think calling preflop is best against this villain, but given he's in the CO a 3bet isn't really bad or anything. I'd still prefer a call, but it's not a HUGE deal imo. Once he flat calls the 3bet OOP, I really don't think you're looking at a pair lower than yours very often at all. In your discussion you seem to feel 99- is in his range, and in my experience those hands just aren't in his range - and are DEFINITELY not in his range after he c/c's the flop. With the 3bet preflop, I think checking back this flop isn't terrible since I think a lot of his range has you beat, and I don't think he's going to get porky with AK here. If I did cbet the flop, I'd be shutting down for sure if I got any action. With the weird turn bet, I think he's on JJ-KK here A LOT and he *might* be looking to bet/fold here. Still, I'd need a very solid read that he would make a weak fold with JJ-KK to consider anything besides folding.
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#45
10-13-2007, 12:30 AM
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Re: How often is this a bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
and lol at those who want to call this turn bet and fold to a river bet if they had AK. TPTK in this pot is the nuts [/ QUOTE ] What is he C/C'ing flop and then leading 2 more streets w/ after the A peels?
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#46
10-13-2007, 12:32 AM
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Re: How often is this a bluff?
Oh and I'm starting to warm up to a shove here.
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#47
10-13-2007, 12:39 PM
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Re: How often is this a bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] and lol at those who want to call this turn bet and fold to a river bet if they had AK. TPTK in this pot is the nuts [/ QUOTE ] What is he C/C'ing flop and then leading 2 more streets w/ after the A peels? [/ QUOTE ] yeah but most of the time he isn't leading river, but he aint folding river, and he is ahead, so he wins. it goes check check
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#48
10-13-2007, 01:15 PM
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Re: How often is this a bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
Oh and I'm starting to warm up to a shove here. [/ QUOTE ] For everybody who likes shoving: note that after our call the pot has $220 and hero only has $90 behind. That shove is less than a half-pot bet; villain may be scared, but his turn bet is a suicide pact. He's accidentally committed himself to this pot and stumbled into the best defense against our hand. We've got no folding equity left -- shoving seems pretty bad to me.
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#49
10-13-2007, 01:27 PM
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Re: How often is this a bluff?
call pre flop we have position. fold turn.
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