PLO 50 - My busted draw faces a weak OOP lead when a backdoor hits

[Silent A]

Poker Stars - Pot Limit Omaha Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $72.90
BB: $28.30
UTG: $17.55
MP: $25.20
CO: $46.30
Hero (BTN): $27.75

Reads: <font color="blue">New to villain but I know he can lay down a hand (folded an earlier hand on the river getting 8:1 pot odds, and it wasn't an insta-fold). Villain left himself about $8 after the river bet.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, MP checks, CO checks, Hero calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($3) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero bets $2.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.50, 2 folds

Turn: ($8) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.00, UTG calls $5.00

River: ($18) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $2.00, Hero ...

[alavet]

he wouldnt fold imo

[gordo16]

I don't think that I would try to raise-bluff this river. Although his bet definitely looks like a blcok bet with 2-pair or something of the such, I think that your turn bet was too weak if you want to represent a set possibly wanting to get value on the river... His decision would have to be whether or not you backdoored 56 (which it doesn't look like) or if you are possibly raising a NFD that backdoored the A3 str8. I think it's -EV to raise here.

[Silent A]

What if I was to say that he was the biggest nit you could possibly imagine?

[alavet]

so i dont mind to lose $8 with that. i pot then

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that I would try to raise-bluff this river. Although his bet definitely looks like a blcok bet with 2-pair or something of the such, I think that your turn bet was too weak if you want to represent a set possibly wanting to get value on the river... His decision would have to be whether or not you backdoored 56 (which it doesn't look like) or if you are possibly raising a NFD that backdoored the A3 str8. I think it's -EV to raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wanted to put in 3/4 on the turn and leave enough behind to bluff the river if a non-diamond hit, but I underbet slightly (there's actually only $7.60 in the pot, not $8). I was certainly not expecting him to bet out for $2, which threw me for a bit of a loop. I figured some crappy 2-pair, totally discounted him backdooring a straight (why bet only $2 with such a disguised hand?) and hoped he'd believe I had a better 2-pair/set. In the end, based on the "bluff with your lowest x%" theory, I went for the bluff.

Villain thought for quite a while, went into the time bank and ... folded.

Then he said, "A,5".

I'm not sure if I can believe him, but why lie about that? But, perhaps he was calling out my hand.

Although my line worked here, I wasn't all that sure if I should have done it.

[darkcore]

you don't beat a bluff. and plo $50 is not the place to care about table iamge....

//edit

he folded the 2nd nutz?

i don't like your line here.

[Elrazor]

[ QUOTE ]
Then he said, "A,5".

I'm not sure if I can believe him, but why lie about that? But, perhaps he was calling out my hand.

Although my line worked here, I wasn't all that sure if I should have done it.

[/ QUOTE ]

if hes calling down, hitting, and then folding A5 here im Anna Kournikova