crazy AKs bubble spot

[agnoke10]

omg easy fold wow at people who said instacall

[Dr_Wonderful]

I call. If you fold you're only chance is at 3rd, and that's hardly a guarantee because if shorty wins next hand you'll probably bust in 4th anyways. If you call and win you'll be pretty much a lock for 3rd and have a fight chance for 2nd. I don't use ICM or SNGPT but this looks like a profitable call in the long run. Taking your shot at UTG busting and you merely taking 3rd seems like a poor route.

[Josem]

logically expanding all the options:

if you fold:

a) assume bb folds to button, ldo

b) next hand, utg is all-in for the big blind + ante (i don't know the size of the ante, but let's say it is 25 chips).

c) if utg wins, he wins 395 chips if he is hu. since he has a random hand, he has a 50% chance of winning (thus, you have a 50% chance of making the money)

d) if that hand is multiway, he wins more chips, but has a 33% chance of winning (thus, you have a 66% chance of making the money)


if you call:
a) assume button is raising any-two, and the bb folds

b) you have about a 60% chance of winning the hand, and still have the chances of making the money as described above

c) when you do, you have more chips




i think that you should call here.

edit: fixed the second (b) line

[taipan168]

Those who say instafold, consider the following:

- If we fold this we will have 40 chips left (BB plus ante = 650)
- Therefore, we will be AI with a random hand the next hand (as will BB)
- Because we will be going into the next hand with 40 chips whilst UTG will have 120, we will need to beat BOTH UTG and whatever other player is in the pot NOT to finish 4th, and if there is another player in the pot, even if we win the main pot if UTG wins the side pot we are still in seriously bad shape
- As I said above, even if we do beat both UTG and any other player, with 120 chips we have virtually no chance of finishing better than 3rd

We have to call here, no choice.

[Little John]

fold and put it in next hand when shorty is allin. that way shorty will have to beat at least two opponents to stay alive.

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]
fold and put it in next hand when shorty is allin. that way shorty will have to beat at least two opponents to stay alive.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, we'll have less than him, so we'll need to beat two opponents. I think its a clear call.

[Little John]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold and put it in next hand when shorty is allin. that way shorty will have to beat at least two opponents to stay alive.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, we'll have less than him, so we'll need to beat two opponents. I think its a clear call.

[/ QUOTE ]

hero is in the sb. he will have 340 after the hand (300 sb plus 50 ante). so he will have shorty covered.

[taipan168]

[ QUOTE ]
hero is in the sb. he will have 340 after the hand (300 sb plus 50 ante). so he will have shorty covered.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ugh I misread the HH, I thought that Hero was in the BB. Nevertheless, I think you still need to call, there's no guarantee that shorty is going out next hand and winning this hand will basically guarantee us 3rd place and potentially better.

[ymu]

It depends on our $EV in this spot compared to the chances of UTG busting before we're in the BB, and our chances of surviving the BB if he doesn't.

BB here is unlikely to get involved here without a huge hand, and big stack is probably raising ATC, so we're probably about 2:1 favourites to survive if we call.

Compare that to what happens if we fold (390 chips) - most importantly, UTG's chances of winning/losing the next hand. If he's up against one opponent (seems likely, as either biggie raises or SB takes him on), UTG is 50/50 to treble up next hand. If he does, he can take his chances in the SB or fold with 210 and wait for us to bust. Back to square one, but we're in an ugly spot again.

The idea of folding and calling AI the next hand is better, because he busts out 2/3 - biggie has to call but not raise the medium stack off for it to be 3/4 (ie prolly not happening).

If biggie folded, it'd be amusing for the medium stack to fold and leave two shorties fighting for a 1BB stack which threatens noone ITM, but this is unlikely, and he should want to help end the bubble one way or another. If biggie were in the SB next hand, it would be more worrying for the fold/AI next hand idea.

So, if we fold we could get ITM a decent %, but we're almost certainly taking 3rd and no better. Is it worth folding as a 2:1 favourite against biggie's range, when trebling up gives us a shot at playing for better than third?

I don't know the answer. I haven't run the maths in enough detail. I just don't think it's as simple as "fold because UTG is short" or "call because we're so short".

But what I'm getting is:

Call - bust out 1/3; 2/3 treble up and have a shot at making better than 3rd (1980 chips).

Fold and call AI next hand - 1/6 bust out (shortie wins 1/3 and we lose to biggie 1/2); 1/6 win 440 side pot (shortie wins and we beat biggie, shortie on 510 with foldable SB coming next); 1/3 bust out with shortie and get 3rd; 1/3 bust shortie and have 950 chips going into ITM.

[The Venetian]

All of you who are calling this, feel free to Google images "head explosion". I'm not doing that again.