Boat gets CRAI on river

[AlienBoy]

There is no question that this is an instant call.

You only lose to A9 or 66 Specifically, and *neither* of those hands are likely given the action.

You chop with any ace, but completely clobber 99, a 6 or 96 or any other number of hands.

Call call call.

AB

[frinxor]

I'd actually say this is pretty ugly. I've had two occassions where I had the better boat/quads and instant pushed once I established the other guy had the top boat.

I'd fold. You're winning <1% of the time here, losing 10% and chopping the rest.

[AssFrister]

So you guys think this massive overbet could be 99? Or 96? Surely that would be a retarded move on villan's part?

I know I said if I had to guess I'd say they weren't very thinking players, but what does he think is going to call all that? KK?

[AlienBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd actually say this is pretty ugly. I've had two occassions where I had the better boat/quads and instant pushed once I established the other guy had the top boat.

I'd fold. You're winning <1% of the time here, losing 10% and chopping the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]


Okay.

$137 in pot, another 102 to call. You're getting almost 1.4 to 1

According to you you lose 10%, so:

One time you lose $102.

9 times you split pot, meaning you *gain* $18.5 (that you would lose by folding)

1% of the time you win $137

so

(18.5*9) + (137/10) - 102 = +78.2

Positive EV to call here even with your pessimistic figures.

AB