Notre Dame at Air Force(+11.5), your thoughts?

[rianb]

I have someone telling me to take a heavy position in this game. I don't think Air Force can play it that close, but I'm a fairly new sportsbettor. What does 2+2 think?

[agesux]

I think that Notre Dame has no problem covering this line. They are right there in the mix of the BCS and I think they are out to prove something. I think they run the score up and have no problem winning by at least 14. Although Air force is comming off a 43 point game, they scored over 30 in the second quarter and that was due to some wonderful play by army. ND -11.5

[canada_dry]

Take Notre Dame, for sure, but maybe tease the line 6 points. That way you win by a touchdown or more...

[iggymcfly]

I don't know how to do the thing where you link to a specific post in a thread, so I just copied and pasted my analysis:

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Notre Dame at Air Force +12 (2.5 units):

This is the line I was waiting for a move on, but it's been oscillating at different prices at +11.5 on Pinnacle for a while, so I decided to grab it at +12 on Bodog.

Basically, Notre Dame's terrible at blowing teams out. Against decent teams, they beat Michigan State by 3, Purdue by 14, and UCLA by 3. Even against terrible teams in Stanford and UNC, they won by 21 and 19 respectively. They dig down deep when they really have to and utilize very successful trick plays (like against GT and MSU), but against most teams Charlie Weis goes with a rather barren playbook and tries to pound out safe victories.

At 4-4, Air Force is the kind of team that Notre Dame is likely to overlook. However, the Falcons are much better than their record would indicate. They played Tennessee very closely in a 31-30 loss in September, and losses to BYU and Navy (with Brian Hampton) are nothing to be ashamed of either. Air Force does have good wins at Wyoming and over Colorado State and will be coming into this game with a ton of momentum off a 43-7 thrashing of Army.

The Sagarin predictor only has Notre Dame favored by one here which is a good indicator of how likely ND is to blow out Air Force. I don't think it will be that close, but I do think somewhere around +7 is a fair line. Look for the Falcons to keep it close in a 31-24 Notre Dame victory.

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[iH8poker]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how to do the thing where you link to a specific post in a thread, so I just copied and pasted my analysis:

[ QUOTE ]

Notre Dame at Air Force +12 (2.5 units):

This is the line I was waiting for a move on, but it's been oscillating at different prices at +11.5 on Pinnacle for a while, so I decided to grab it at +12 on Bodog.

Basically, Notre Dame's terrible at blowing teams out. Against decent teams, they beat Michigan State by 3, Purdue by 14, and UCLA by 3. Even against terrible teams in Stanford and UNC, they won by 21 and 19 respectively. They dig down deep when they really have to and utilize very successful trick plays (like against GT and MSU), but against most teams Charlie Weis goes with a rather barren playbook and tries to pound out safe victories.

At 4-4, Air Force is the kind of team that Notre Dame is likely to overlook. However, the Falcons are much better than their record would indicate. They played Tennessee very closely in a 31-30 loss in September, and losses to BYU and Navy (with Brian Hampton) are nothing to be ashamed of either. Air Force does have good wins at Wyoming and over Colorado State and will be coming into this game with a ton of momentum off a 43-7 thrashing of Army.

The Sagarin predictor only has Notre Dame favored by one here which is a good indicator of how likely ND is to blow out Air Force. I don't think it will be that close, but I do think somewhere around +7 is a fair line. Look for the Falcons to keep it close in a 31-24 Notre Dame victory.

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This seems like a safe bet to me:
Total under 53 for -110 - wsex.
I'm favoring betting on Air Force myself.

[agesux]

39-17 Three units on that one. I agree with your analysis but as I said above its do or die for them right now and they have to make a case for themself.