150/300 stud hi/lo reg simple peel question

[DeathDonkey]

Because it always causes some confusion, stud hi/lo regular means no qualifier for the low hand, I'm sure there aren't many no qualifier experts just hanging around but all you good stud/8 players can help me right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

3 handed game 25 ante 50 BI, a Queen brings in, I raise with a 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] up with an 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] behind me. I was raising blind if that matters (I think 100% correct) but the 8 calls so I look and see I have K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] down. The Queen folds.

Villain is aggressive and experienced at live mix games but is bad at poker theory and will overvalue high hands and/or chase too far and never give me much credit.

On 4th he catches A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I catch 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] he bets. Do I call or fold?

Thanks,
DeathDonkey

[RustyBrooks]

Does he know you didn't look when you completed?

I'm a stud/8 fish but is raising really not an option?

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
Does he know you didn't look when you completed?

I'm a stud/8 fish but is raising really not an option?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think raising here is good, he has to have enough hand here to continue on and you're not a favorite right now. Kinda interesting to do it for a free card but he's only gonna give free cards when he bricks anyway.

So yeah, I def call here and hope to hit an upaired card below an 8. Preferably one with pointy shapes.

for those unfamiliar with how opp's equity is right now, A832 with 3 hearts is 56% whereas trip aces is 47.5%. Best case scenario right now is a hidden pair+ for this guy, then we have a fun problem when we catch ok but not great on 5th.

[Andy B]

I'm an old nit, but I wouldn't be raising blind on third. Perhaps with an Ace in the door you could raise anything, but the Eight could easily have a good hand.

With four to a flush and three to a decent low, I think you have to peel on fourth. You should be in decent shape against his range, and you'll probably have position.

[Micturition Man]

You definitely have to peel 4th here, your worst case is about 60/40 versus A234.

Also in theory you probably shouldn't be completing 3rd 100% because a 4 with random downcards is a quite small favorite over an 8 with random downcards.

If the 8 knew you were raising 100% he could probably profitably reraise 100%, showing an automatic profit if you are folding the bottom half of your hands.

That's not to say it doesn't work in practice though.

I think in theory you should probably complete 3rd with any A-8 in the hole, plus some high hands, but fold hands with two K-9 cards. Something like that.

[Adebisi]

Definately call. Even if he has a decent hand, if you catch a diamond on 5th, you're freerolling him, and if you catch a low card and he catches a brick, you'll have good equity. Add in the slight possibility that he has something retarded like wired jacks, there's no way you can fold a live 4 flush with a 248.

[DeathDonkey]

Micturition: thanks for some good stuff, I agree with you about pretty much all of that, but he did not know I was completing blind which makes me certain he won't play back with a wide enough range to make my play unprofitable. I think your theoretical range for completing there is also very good.

Andy: old nit or not I think some simple math would change your mind about completing any 3 on 3rd street there given the upcards and that he doesn't know I'm doing it. I'm risking 150 to win 125 so I have to steal the antes 55% of the time. You think the 8 upcard will find a hand to play 45% of the time? And that's just if I check/fold on 4th no matter what! Add in the times I catch well on 4th and I think its a pretty easy steal spot.

Adebisi:

[ QUOTE ]
Definately call. Even if he has a decent hand, if you catch a diamond on 5th, you're freerolling him, and if you catch a low card and he catches a brick, you'll have good equity. Add in the slight possibility that he has something retarded like wired jacks, there's no way you can fold a live 4 flush with a 248.

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Well sure you've laid out the best cases for me, but you're being way optimistic. If he catches low and I brick I think I have to fold, so that cancels out the times I catch well and he bricks (and he may be able to continue sometimes in that case). The times I catch a diamond and freeroll are small compared to the times he catches another low card and is now freerolling me! He is like a 2:1 favorite to catch a small card instead of me catching a diamond (worded that funny but the point is the pessimistic case is around twice as likely as the optimistic case).

Even though he wasn't a great player I think he is smart enough to know any big wired pair is complete trash.

Thanks all, more thoughts are welcome,
DeathDonkey

[Phat Mack]

You think the 8 upcard will find a hand to play 45% of the time?

I do. An 8 up-card is stronger in any-any than it is in eight-or-better because of its ambiguity about direction (hi or lo). In 3-handed any-any, an 8 in the door is second in power only to an ace.

I raise or fold here, not call or fold. If it comes low/low on 5th street, I may want to slow him down a little. If it comes diamond/any or low/brick, I'd keep up the aggression.

My "fold-or-play" here is based entirely on my ability to outplay villain on later streets. It's not about showdown equity so much as it's about whether you can make any money off the guy when it's board against board.

From your thumbnail description of villain, I'd probably fold fairly often.

[Micturition Man]

[ QUOTE ]
You think the 8 upcard will find a hand to play 45% of the time?

I do. An 8 up-card is stronger in any-any than it is in eight-or-better because of its ambiguity about direction (hi or lo). In 3-handed any-any, an 8 in the door is second in power only to an ace.


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I actually doubt that you will get called/raised 45% of the time here.

IIRC from when I made some calculations for razz distributions, the median low hand like J7 in the hole.

You think villain is playing back with J78?

It's true villain will play some high hands like 22-AA, roll-ups, and 3 flushes with 2 low cards, but he'll also fold a lot of razz hands lower than J78.

Just off the cuff I would guess a solid opponent is going to fold ~60% of the time here.

(This is why when I first got into razz I started some long contentious threads about stealing/restealing on 3rd... it appears that most people play very suboptimally in this regard.)

Anyway back to 4th, I am seriously not understanding the controversy here. I don't see how folding can be an option. We're in good shape here, what's the problem?

Actually even if we brick 4th and villain catches low, I'm still not sure it's correct to fold on balance (check twodimes if you don't believe me, I was surprised too). But anyway that's the worst case scenario.

The raise/call question is separate.

Raising is kinda nice against a smart-solid player who will make laydowns on 5th/6th if he thinks he's drawing dead for low. It's also kind of bad to the extent that it causes villain to correctly put us on a flush draw.

[Phat Mack]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You think the 8 upcard will find a hand to play 45% of the time?

I do. An 8 up-card is stronger in any-any than it is in eight-or-better because of its ambiguity about direction (hi or lo). In 3-handed any-any, an 8 in the door is second in power only to an ace.


[/ QUOTE ]

I actually doubt that you will get called/raised 45% of the time here.

IIRC from when I made some calculations for razz distributions, the median low hand like J7 in the hole.


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I don't think the comparison to razz will take us very far. There are 1755 distinct stud hands and 379 of them contain an 8. For hi-lo, of these 379 I think we'll find the median hand more like JJ8 with a suit, which I think will be played in a 150/300 any-any game. A 987 w/ a suit is in the same neighborhood, and three-handed is a viable hand both ways.

But, as I said before, I think these situations are more about boards than showdown equity.

I think that I have an any-any calculator/simulator sitting on some old hard drive. I can look for it and run some hands if anyone's interested. I find 3-handed hi-lo an interesting game, but hardly ever get to play it and I'm not sure that everyone shares my fascination. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]