One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.

[NT!]

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He's apparently decent at assessing young talent but has been legitimately awful in the free agent market...

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ortiz
okajima
timlin
mueller
garden worm

etc

he's better at finding overlooked guys who can contribute than signing big ticket FA's. he's also been good about NOT overpaying for FA's on their way down - pedro, damon, etc. he lets guys walk at the right time for the most part. the guys he has signed who haven't worked out are still mostly young guys who projected pretty well, not 35 year old declining sluggers.

[kidcolin]

Millar was a pretty decent pick up as well.

[NT!]

didn't count him or dice since millar's contract was actually purchased from florida IIRC and dice-k was posted. but they were both pretty good deals imo.

[Joe Tall]

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He is overrated.

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Your insight is amazing. Quality reply.

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Well, your only question was "Who's side are you on?"

I think he took that to mean either "He's overrated", or "he's underrated", or perhaps "he's rated appropriately."

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Exactly. You asked who's side i'm on. I think he is overrated. Your friend pretty much sums up a lot of his mistakes.

You also didn't list any reasons why he isn't overrated in your OP. ty for your amazing insight.

I don't think he is a horrible GM, I just think he was much better in his first few years, before the Red Sox increased spending to compete with the Yankees.

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If I wanted a poll, I would have made a poll. I'm S O R R Y T H A T Y O U N E E D E V E R Y T H I N G S P E L L E D O U T F O R Y O U.

I think it's obvious that I feel Theo has done a fine job. But to make it clear, it was 2002 when I nearly gave up my season tickets and now I am very happy I kept them and the new owners/management has done a great job and should be the pride of Boston. But there are some fans who are retarded that can't be satisfied with winning a WS and then returning 4 seasons later. WEEI in Boston (the #1 sports radio station in the country) feeds off these fans, rinse/repeat, and this has a trickle down effect in the overall media.

[Vyse]

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He's not the #1 overall prospect like he was hyped up at the time, but then he was never that.

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If he wasn't, he was pretty close.

Theo has basically been about as great as you can expect any GM to be given his position, the pressure put on him by ownership and fans (the latter of which he ignores quite well). When you have extra money, you can afford to be less efficient in a couple of decisions here and there, just because there's nothing to gain from not doing it. Overall Epstein's been great, and it's a testament to his analytical skill that the Sox have been in many a precarious position to mess up the franchise for quite a while and Theo has resisted the temptation.

I'd agree that Theo is a top 5 GM, maybe top 3.

[Franchise 60]

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If I wanted a poll, I would have made a poll. I'm S O R R Y T H A T Y O U N E E D E V E R Y T H I N G S P E L L E D O U T F O R Y O U.

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Ouch. Burn. Owned.

No.

You win, you have proved that you are a huge douche. My bad I didn't expand on the argument that Theo is overrated WHICH IS ALREADY TALKED ABOUT IN YOUR OP BY YOUR FRIEND.

Oh look, wow, I have caps lock too. Sweet.

[Joe Tall]

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[x] signed Big Papi for loose change in 2003

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Who had his best year in his career in 2007.

[anatta]

Whenever I see Theo I think of all those high stakes kids like sbrugby and Stox. Younger than me, smarter than me, more successful. But I love 'em anyways. Those guys learned me how to play some good. Theo arrived and the burden was lifted. Skill and his good karma, whatever balance of the two I don't care.

He had what it took for the club to hire him and combine sabermetric and big payroll. So his youth and smarts and whatever else got the Sox to make this gamble should be counted in his favor.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I think Theo is overhyped. Everyone makes mistakes from time to time. But he does seem like a pretty good GM.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

I think the Red Sox are proof that you can approach problem solving really well, yet still end up missing a large % of the time.

their mistakes happen to be more visible/magnified than lots of teams.

basically, Fooled by Randomness

I'm pretty sure that if the current mgmt group ran the team for 15 years they would be much more successfull than most other teams, but in the short term lots of weird stuff can happen.

in that regard, evaluating GM's is like evaluting players, but the sample size you need is much longer.