75/150 vs HOWMANY not telling you anybody's hands

[DeathDonkey]

Dunno how this will work but its the best way to post this hand so we'll just give it a try.

Shorthanded 75/150 game I'm playing fairly LAG but well, HOWMANY is on my left and playing good and a bit tightish IMO.

Folded to my SB 2 chip 3 chip structure I open complete (second time this situation has presented, and I open completed the first time too, called a raise preflop and check/folded the flop and truthfully let him know I had a very weak hand). Sean raises the BB and I call.

Flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I checkraise, he calls.

Turn is 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I bet, get raised, think briefly and call.

River is 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I check, Sean tanks for at least 10 seconds and then bets, I quickly checkraise, Sean insta-3 bets.

1) What is the minimum hand you would need to call this river 3 bet that makes sense given the action?

2) What is the minimum hand you would need to 3 bet the river in Sean's spot that makes sense given the action?

3) If I am bluffing what hands would be good to play this way and CR river bluff and how do you feel about me making this bluff in general?

4) If Sean is bluffing what hands would be good to play this way and 3 bet river bluff and how do you feel about him making this bluff in general?

5) What do we both have?

I fully understand this post may suck but I like to try and get one interesting hand out of a session like this with another tough 2+2er in the game.

-DeathDonkey

[bugstud]

I don't think I know expressly enough about sean's raising range in the bb here, but in your spot I'm not feeling very good about any hand I realistically have here. I mean like Qd3d/Qd7d/A3/A7 are like what should be top of your range...and it seems like sean beats all those. I'm trying to think deeper and my head is asploding, so I'm gonna come back to this later.

I guess one thing is sean has to not feel good about 1 pair of anything here when you c/r so something like Td8d seems like a good river c/r.

[vmacosta]

You have A3 or qd3d and sean has A7 or better. If anybody is on a genuine bluff by the time the second bet goes in on the turn, they are playing badly. Particularly given the spectacularly spewy river betting you guys have been posting about lately.

[Justin A]

I think you played the hand brilliantly preflop with whatever you happen to have.

You probably have to 4bet most of the hands in your range at this point on the river. Sean tanking for a full ten seconds is a thinking decision, either a bluff or a thin value bet. Unless he is hollywooding you which I really doubt, his insta 3bet makes absolutely no sense and makes me think that you should 4bet for value any hand that's like A2 or better, and 4bet for bluff any hand worse than a J.

[hoppscot22]

why would you 4 bet those hand justin, he is never calling the 4 bet with hands that we beat...

[MitchL]

You need Aces up to call, a set or straight to 4bet. Sean cannot put you on anything but a bluff or bad two pair so he could literally have anything, but I would assume if he was bluffing he would have a fd. I think it is ok for him to be bluffing, but not a good idea for you to be.

[HOWMANY]

[ QUOTE ]

You probably have to 4bet most of the hands in your range at this point on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish he had done this. And yes I was playing super tight last night. I played basically super premium hands most the time you were there simply because I was receiving only fantastic hands or complete crap. I managed to pick up a few solid hands to 3bet Brenda with. Unfortunately I forgot that a tight and solid player like her is going to have QQ-AA 80% of the time.

Chris, is there any way I can convince you to stop playing so well?

[MitchL]

My post is bad. I think I would call with anything I was raising for value on the river. I think it is Ok for HM to 3bet river bluff if he thinks you can fold 2 crappy pair, but that is probably a longshot since neither of you thinks the other has anything. I think you have a big hand. Not sure what HM has, but Id guess a fd.

[CardSharpCook]

after the tank 10, insta 3bet, I'd have to think his range is KT, AA,QQ,JJ,bluff. If I'm HOWMANY I am definately thinking a bit with my AQ before 3betting. Now it is possible that he thought this through already and decided that he gets to 3bet AQ, but I just don't buy it.

I think your river 2bet minimum is any two pair or better. That tank 10 so often means "should I value bet my good ace?" that I'm raising any two pair here and feeling like I stepped in it when he 3bets.

The hand ranges in this hand are pretty wide up until the river 2bet and 3bet. Flush draw and JT are at the bottom of DD's range after the turn. Ace-rag, semi-bluff, bluff are at the bottom of HM's range at the end of the turn. At the end of the flop, bluff is too large a part of both players' range to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Should you call? uh, yeah dude, this is limited hold them. 13BB in the pot. Maybe he is on tilt and you just don't know it.

[CardSharpCook]

I am surprised by how wide everyone else's hand ranges are. I know that I have a tendency to upgrade hands when people are telling a story or I read an HH, but I don't think that desperate bluff is a very large part of either players' range. A river call with any two pair is lighting money on fire as is raising anything less than QQ. The more I think about it, the more DD's hand looks exactly like some random 2pair. 3betting AJ is still good on his part, but that tank 10, insta 3 stops me from 4betting QQ here. Also, if you take the 3bet range to be AJ or better, QQ is losing to a little over 50% of his holdings, no? (this discounts 77,33 as non-existant)