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#1
11-03-2007, 08:30 PM
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NL50: I gots QQ and he shoves
villain just got to table.
Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter SB: $55.40 BB: $50 UTG: $37 MP: $35.95 CO: $54.25 Hero (BTN): $49.25 Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN) UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, SB calls $2.25, <font color="red">BB raises to $10</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $7.50, SB folds Flop: ($23) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">BB bets $40 and is All-In</font>, Hero ? 
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#2
11-03-2007, 09:00 PM
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Re: NL50: I gots QQ and he shoves
I fold flop. JJ and AK are the only hands you beat and I see AA and KK do this a decent amount. I need a read or stats at least to stack off here.
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#3
11-03-2007, 09:22 PM
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Re: NL50: I gots QQ and he shoves
Close, but fold. He does this at most maybe half the time with his 16 AK combinations but 100 percent of the time with his 12 AA/KK combos, and JJ is not doing this. TT maybe maybe maybe.
You lose to his range, though it is semi-close. Note that if you had any read that he [censored] around too much in 3-bet pots and/or you are degen gambler this is a fairly close spot.
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#4
11-03-2007, 09:24 PM
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Re: NL50: I gots QQ and he shoves
I think assuming he does this with half his AK combinations is being very hopeful hes a maniac. I think at best its 1/3 of his combos, and probably closer to 1/4. If TT does this you obviously are way behind to top set. JJ is a possibility like I said, but there combos of AA and KK obviously outweigh that.
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#5
11-03-2007, 09:29 PM
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Re: NL50: I gots QQ and he shoves
i really wish we had a read on what he would do with AK here
Board: Tc 8h 5s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 49.144% 47.83% 01.32% 17993 495.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo } Hand 1: 50.856% 49.54% 01.32% 18637 495.00 { QdQs } give he always shoves AK here. if he only shoves AK half the time and always shoves TT+ Board: Tc 8h 5s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 55.508% 53.84% 01.67% 15991 495.00 { TT+, AhKh, AsKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKh, AdKs, AhKs } Hand 1: 44.492% 42.82% 01.67% 12719 495.00 { QdQs } if he never shoves AK, its a fold. we need 40 to call into a 63 pot, so we are getting nearly 1-6.1, so it just might be a call given this range edit: given he shoves 1/3-1/4 of the time Board: Tc 8h 5s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 58.769% 56.92% 01.85% 15214 495.00 { TT+, AsKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc } Hand 1: 41.231% 39.38% 01.85% 10526 495.00 { QdQs } gaah its close
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#6
11-03-2007, 10:13 PM
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Re: NL50: I gots QQ and he shoves
ezay fold
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#8
11-03-2007, 10:40 PM
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Re: NL50: I gots QQ and he shoves
[ QUOTE ]
Close, but fold. He does this at most maybe half the time with his 16 AK combinations but 100 percent of the time with his 12 AA/KK combos, and JJ is not doing this. TT maybe maybe maybe. You lose to his range, though it is semi-close. Note that if you had any read that he [censored] around too much in 3-bet pots and/or you are degen gambler this is a fairly close spot. [/ QUOTE ] I am CALLING here...I am getting 1.5 to 1 on my money and I expect to be good at over 50% os the time... How can we ASSUME villain plays AA,KK and TT this way 100% of the time???? Villain makes a "standard" 3 bet but NOW OVERSHOVES on a very dry flop...But then "we" say JJ does not play this way???? This reasonning does not make sense to me???The hands in villains range that have little to fear shove but a vulnerable hand like JJ doesn't??? IMO if villain does have AA or KK he will be looking to extract added value and not blows "us" off everything except a set or may be "our" exact hand QQ... Also it's Sat night so villains "bluffing" range could be wider...
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#9
11-03-2007, 10:47 PM
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Re: NL50: I gots QQ and he shoves
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Close, but fold. He does this at most maybe half the time with his 16 AK combinations but 100 percent of the time with his 12 AA/KK combos, and JJ is not doing this. TT maybe maybe maybe. You lose to his range, though it is semi-close. Note that if you had any read that he [censored] around too much in 3-bet pots and/or you are degen gambler this is a fairly close spot. [/ QUOTE ] I am CALLING here...I am getting 1.5 to 1 on my money and I expect to be good at over 50% os the time... How can we ASSUME villain plays AA,KK and TT this way 100% of the time???? Villain makes a "standard" 3 bet but NOW OVERSHOVES on a very dry flop...But then "we" say JJ does not play this way???? This reasonning does not make sense to me???The hands in villains range that have little to fear shove but a vulnerable hand like JJ doesn't??? IMO if villain does have AA or KK he will be looking to extract added value and not blows "us" off everything except a set or may be "our" exact hand QQ... Also it's Sat night so villains "bluffing" range could be wider... [/ QUOTE ] I think the fact that villain made this overbet/played this hand this particular way gives us some valuable information . . . that is, he kind of sucks. The kind of player who makes this kind of overshove does not understand the proper methodry of extraction, in my experience. The kinds of players i see making these overbets are doing one of two things . . . Either shoving with AK thinking "lolz i have AK he has to fold i saw this on tv," or thinking "i'm not gonna get sucked out with my AA/KK this time...." In my experience at the level, the latter is much more common with the former. Though the point about it being a weekend night holds a significant amount of validity.
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