Trading Dow Futures.. Is my system +EV?

[wickedgoodtrader]

why everyone so pessimistic? I really don't think back testing is a viable option because I use a lot of "feel" when deciding whether to jump in the trade or not. Isn't the market mostly psycology? How many of you are successful poker players?

[ArturiusX]

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why everyone so pessimistic? I really don't think back testing is a viable option because I use a lot of "feel" when deciding whether to jump in the trade or not. Isn't the market mostly psycology? How many of you are successful poker players?

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Dude, this would be the simplest thing to back test ever.

And 'feel' in poker is not the same in trading. Group psychology vs individual psychology is so different. Thats why poker players suck at trading.

[stephenNUTS]

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[ QUOTE ]
why everyone so pessimistic? I really don't think back testing is a viable option because I use a lot of "feel" when deciding whether to jump in the trade or not. Isn't the market mostly psycology? How many of you are successful poker players?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, this would be the simplest thing to back test ever.

And 'feel' in poker is not the same in trading. Group psychology vs individual psychology is so different. Thats why poker players suck at trading.

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But they sure dont think so...lol

SF [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[wickedgoodtrader]

ok then back test it for me. I've never seen how a backtest works but how do you get the computer to understand what kind of trend is occurring. Like a long black candlestick doesn't necessarily mean a downtrend.. however when it breaks below recent support it usually does. Seems like an awful lot of variables to have recognized.

So if good poker players make bad traders do good traders make bad poker players? I think a good poker player is versatile and can maneuver as needed. He learned the game of poker well. To do so shows a certain type of intelligence that I believe a good trader would consist of.

[stephenNUTS]

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ok then back test it for me. I've never seen how a backtest works but how do you get the computer to understand what kind of trend is occurring. Like a long black candlestick doesn't necessarily mean a downtrend.. however when it breaks below recent support it usually does. Seems like an awful lot of variables to have recognized.

So if good poker players make bad traders do good traders make bad poker players? I think a good poker player is versatile and can maneuver as needed. He learned the game of poker well. To do so shows a certain type of intelligence that I believe a good trader would consist of.

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I will tell you this with a strong conviction:

Good poker players usually fail at trading,as many of them think its the same game...and its not even close

However..without a doubt,a GOOD trader,is much more likley to succeed at being a good/solid poker player from his aquired trading skills alone

SF [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[ArturiusX]

I'm not going to waste my time backtesting it, just download any backtesting software like esignal or tradestation, plug in some simple variable likes enter at time X, use some kind of CCI momentum indicator I guess to determine which way price is headed, make a few clicks and hey presto you can analyse all the data dating back to whenever you want.

Hell, you could do it by hand if you wanted too, shouldn't be too hard.

Also on the poker player thing, I have no doubt poker players could be become good traders. I just see no statistical correlation that would be present that makes successful poker players having a greater chance at succeeding then anyone else.

[Jimbo]

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You're relying on the pile on effect that happens when price starts moving in a direction. You have to get in early enough to see this, which means you have to have the foresight that no one else has about the momentum of a move.

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Not really, during the recent volatile market I have been using both straddles and strangles on stocks with a pretty high beta. I am also very familiar with the normal trading ranges and patterns of these few stocks. Using today as an example: GS opened much higher than the prior close, I immediately bought 240 puts (already had some 230 puts from late yesterday) The price dropped pretty quickly so I then bought 240 calls. By the end of the day I sold all my 240 puts and the profit covered the complete cost of my remaining 230 puts and 240 calls. These are all Nov options so I have only two more days for GS to either get near or higher than 240 or near or lower to 230. Another volatile today or tomorrow and I should be able to profit on both sides of my remaining positions. The last 30 minutes of today was pure heavan. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


Jimbo

[pig4bill]

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why everyone so pessimistic? I really don't think back testing is a viable option because I use a lot of "feel" when deciding whether to jump in the trade or not. Isn't the market mostly psycology? How many of you are successful poker players?

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Most people posting here really have no idea, they're just spouting off.

Tradestation.com would probably be the best one to use to backtest it. For such a simple system, there are a number of cheap tools that would work, except most work only on daily bars, not intraday. BTW, it's not unusual for a futures system to pick a direction and go with it till close. You should consider a stop loss though, so your loss is limited on days it goes against you, but you benefit from the full move on days it goes with you. Backtesting would give you an idea of how big a stop to use.

[Uglyowl]

It's almost 3:30.. which way you going?

[wickedgoodtrader]

I went short at a minute or 2 past 3:30 as there was a nice star that had formed 2:25 and the next bar became black... what a hit it was as the market just fell off hard and I was raking in some nice profits. It then bounced back pretty hard and I gave most of them back but it closed slight lower then my short price and I made about $600.