Common situation w/ midpair and an 18bb stack

[swede554]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has an M of 20, so unless there's a read that he's a maniac, I would put him on a normal raising range for MP2, maybe something like 99+,A8s+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo. Stoving it against your three pairs yields:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.982% 43.78% 00.20% 575750928 2629770.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 56.018% 55.82% 00.20% 734039004 2629770.00 { 99+, A8s+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.010% 42.75% 00.26% 562170048 3437346.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 56.990% 56.73% 00.26% 746004732 3437346.00 { 99+, A8s+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.292% 45.69% 00.61% 567935820 7538154.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 53.708% 53.10% 00.61% 660120576 7538154.00 { 99+, A8s+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

That might be our equity vs. his raising range, but what about vs. his calling range? If you really want get technical and do some math you can determine wheter a push w/ 77 is +EV or not by looking at his raising range, calling range and our equity's vs those.

[Pokerfarian]

[ QUOTE ]
i would shove, you have a mid pair and 18bb left your in ideal restealing territory

[/ QUOTE ]

[kurtkatt]

great, this is a perfect easy example that can let me learn some math...


cheb, if we take that raising range, it seems fine for me. it might be wider or it might even be a lot tighter since both the blinds stacks are so scary. But know nothing of him so fkk it and go with a medium.

your range is something like 10% hands, if he is calling TT+, AQs+, AK, he is calling 4% hands, thus calling us 2/5.

against that range we have 32-33% equity, 77 actually does a little better than both 99 n 44. so we win about 1/3.


Now can someone learn a mathdummy to figure out how these numbers is transformed to cEV numbers?


ill make a try and u can flame me later...

there is 300+150+225+900= 1575 in the pot

60% he folds= 6900

40% he calls,

33% we win= 12400
66% we lose= 0


ok, so now im stuck....

[swede554]

lol you beat me to it kurtkatt, anyhow here's my attempt.

(It's been awhile since I actually crunched the numbers so please look for possible errors).

I'm only going to do it for my actual hand, 77, and this is also not taking into consideration that someone behind me might call.

I think in this situation MP2 raising range is actually slightly wider than what Cheburashka suggested.

At this buy-in, assuming that MP2 is standard decent TAG that's capable of mixing it up preflop,I'd say it's more like: 22+, A8s+, ATo+, QJs+, KQo, plus a few random SC's, let's say JTs, T9s, 76s.

So he's raising w/ 14% of his hands from this position, as reasonable presumption imo.

When I push for he has to call another 4,436 to win 6,911....5336(my stack)+900(his raise)+675(blinds/antes).

So he's getting about 1.7-1, not quite 2-1 on his money to call.

I think his calling range is 77+, AJs+, AQo+, or about half the hands he'll raise w/ (6.3%).

To simplify let's say he'll call w/ exactly 50% of the hands he's raising with.

50% of the time I win 1,575= +1,575

My equity vs his calling range is 35%.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.247% 34.42% 00.83% 279382800 6697068.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 64.753% 63.93% 00.83% 518855160 6697068.00 { 77+, AJs+, AQo+ }

So, the other half of the time I'll:

Lose 5,536 65% of the time= -3,598
Win 6,211 35% of the time= +2,174

So if my ranges are correct pushing w/ 77 here is actually slightly +EV to the tune of +151.

Before doing the math I actually thought it would be +EV to push here, even if only slightly so.

Once again, someone please check my math, I'm kind of rusty.


edit: noticed and fixed an error already (i think). That error actually changed it from being slightly -EV to +EV, which is what I orginally thought pushing here would be.

[black666]

Ok, let's do the math. I would put villain on a range of 88+, AT+ and once we shove, he will call with JJ+,AK.

For the pairs there are 6 possible combinations each. For the other hands 16 each. So villain is raising with 106 hands and calls a shove with 40 of them. So we are getting called with 37.7% of villain's raising range.

If villain calls, pokerstove shows:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.308% 33.13% 00.18% 136129056 750132.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 66.692% 66.51% 00.18% 273323640 750132.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

If we shove and win, our new stack is at 11.122
If villain folds, our new stack is at 6.686

Now let's put all this together:
(0,623 x 6.686) + (0,377 x 0,33 x 11.122) = 5549

So with those ranges, it's slightly +cEV

In general I'm with kurtkatt:
[ QUOTE ]
i probably push/fold 50/50. 44 i push less, 99 i always push.

[/ QUOTE ]

[kurtkatt]

Now let's put all this together:
(0,623 x 6.686) + (0,377 x 0,33 x 11.122) = 5549


so this is the formula to do the last part of the calc.
looks like meeeeehhhh....!!!???


swede yeah i agree range might be wider but also might not if he actually thinks about stacksizes of villains behind etc. When we start working with a less standardized raise/call range is where any of these pairs start to diverge and 99 becomes far superior and obv 44 takes the biggest hit.

[jlmcrna]

how do you define Ideal restealing territory?

[kurtkatt]

stackwise, when our stack is small enough to just push over ppls bets and big enough to give them bad odds to look us up.

[jlmcrna]

[ QUOTE ]
stackwise, when our stack is small enough to just push over ppls bets and big enough to give them bad odds to look us up.

[/ QUOTE ]
sorry, if this is terrible, but why is it ideal to be small enough to just push over a steal attempt.
Why isn't it enough of a good situation to simply push back big enough to offer bad odds?
say with very close stacks or slightly bigger stack?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You're not deep enough to call for set value here, so it's push/fold.