98 on 688QA runner runner flush board deep

Jurrr · #1 10-10-2007, 05:28 AM

5-handed. Probably a very simple hand, but would appreciate a line check.

Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], TAG image and 475BB.
BTN is 25/9/1.9(630) with 22% went to SD, 48% won at SD, 83% fold to cbet, 12% call cbet, 5% raise cbet and 348BB.

He went for pot control (or trapped?) on a scary board with top two pair OOP in a bigish pot; I was value betting worse two pair having floated flop with bottom pair and he called and won.

MP posts out of turn, Hero raises to 4.5BB, BTN calls, SB calls, BB calls, MP folds.

Flop 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (19BB)

Hero bets 15BB, BTN calls, 2 folds.

Turn Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (49BB)

Hero bets 28BB, BTN raises to 56BB, Hero calls.

River A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (131BB)

Hero checks, BTN bets 100BB, Hero...?

ofishstix · #2 10-10-2007, 05:30 AM

i wouldnt fold here.
there's a pretty good chance i'd be 3towning the turn as well.

Jurrr · #3 10-10-2007, 05:49 AM

What do you put him on?

P.S. I forgot to say that my read is that he is definitely not good and extremely likely a losing player, but I don't think he's terribly spewy in making completely retarded bluffs.

ofishstix · #4 10-10-2007, 05:52 AM

i just dont think he'd minraise the turn with a non-nut flush draw on a paired board.

3betting the turn is prolly kinda spewy, now that i think about it btw

tubasteve · #5 10-10-2007, 06:04 AM

i think riv is a fold

Bulletproof Monk · #6 10-10-2007, 06:19 AM

there is almost no way he can have a flush unless its like Ts9s or 9s7s.

he probably has 66 or the case 8.

i like how you played this and i call the river but its marginal

Jurrr · #7 10-10-2007, 09:59 AM

OK, thanks for the feedback.

Discounting retarded bluffs I think his range is 87, 86, 98, T8, QQ, AA, AQ. One can argue the weighting but I think AQ won't float flop that often even that deep with those fold to cbet stats and 87 won't always play it this strong.

So I think it is an easy fold. Is this logic flawed somehow?

disko · #8 10-10-2007, 09:59 AM

how can this be a call? on the river he no longer beats much and for another bi i think you have to think he is beat.

if you dont think he is capable of making a bet like this with a worse hand then pitch it. a taggy isnt betting like this as a bluff

KhalynYohrk · #9 10-10-2007, 10:03 AM

There are times when players make the minraise because they think you have air and will lay down the turn, and hence are forced to double barrel on the river though, amirite?

Jurrr · #10 10-10-2007, 10:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There are times when players make the minraise because they think you have air and will lay down the turn, and hence are forced to double barrel on the river though, amirite?

[/ QUOTE ]Yes, it is a possibility, but I don't think a very likely one.

I double barrel quite a bit when scare cards hit. However, I don't cbet this multiway with air. Villain could have noticed the former but not noticed the latter, but I don't think it's likely.

Also, at least I (and presumably many villains) feel much more comfortable running smaller bluffs instead of big 150BB ones.