NL200: turn checkraise all in with middle pair + FD against donk

[Jurrr]

5-handed, NL200.

Hero is BB with $200 and K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG is donkish 57/23/4.75 with $161. Only 11% went to SD but sample of 47 hands only.
CO is a loose passive fish.

UTG raises to $4, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.

Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($13)

Hero checks, UTG bets $13, CO folds, hero calls $13.

Turn 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($39)

Hero checks, UTG bets $28, Hero shoves (UTG has $116 behind), UTG...

I'm mostly looking to see if my thought process doesn't show major leaks as I find myself doing these semi-bluff/semi-value shoves often.

Preflop I think a call is the only option.

On the flop I felt I may as well keep the pot small and not raise as he calls me with most draws and I don't feel like firing the turn and check-calling river when he does.

On the turn he fires again and I've picked up more outs. I feel like I have some FE, may have the best hand some of the time that I would probably fold on the river if he fires again, and have enough outs against his range to cover up the rest for this high-variance move to be profitable.

That's what I thought last night. Today I think I was on tilt and just muttered "godddammit I'm going arr in I can lose a buyin" but cannot really think of a better line.

[disko]

i dont like this.

you have 9 spades, and only 2 9s and 2 ks (i dont think you can include clubs here) that may or may not win it, so that's 13/46. If you get a fold or a call and you hit then good luck to you but there are better spots imo. if you have a pair and two spades on the flop then it's a different answer of course.

[AnthonyH]

PF: Definetly a call, getting 6:1 with a suited king, but be wary as you mary very well be dominated

Flop: I have no problem c/f'ing this flop. You have middle pair, OOP against two opponents on a draw heavy board. If your ahead, its not by much, and very often you are destroyed by his range.

Turn: As played, I would call here, but not like it. You have very little FE against such a donkish opponent and said donkish opponent will likely pay you off if you hit on the river. Turn is a [censored] spot, but easily avoided by folding the flop.

[Jurrr]

Just a few pokerstoves against sample hands on the turn:
29% against A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
18% against JJ
70% against A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
81% against T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
31% against QQ
96% against 66

[Jurrr]

He raises 23% of his hands preflop. c/f flop seems super weak.

Edit (though by stoving I'm not ahead by that much):

Board: Js 2c 9c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.383% 55.16% 01.22% 129608 2868.50 { Ks9s }
Hand 1: 43.617% 42.40% 01.22% 99615 2868.50 { 66+, A3s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }


Assuming he continues firing with all hands (unreasonable) by the turn:

Board: Js 2c 9c 5s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.281% 66.38% 00.90% 6903 93.33 { Ks9s }
Hand 1: 32.719% 31.82% 00.90% 3309 93.33 { 66+, A3s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }

That assumes he's positionally unaware and that he'd pick a sane 23% range (probably I do better against the actual range he picks).

[AnthonyH]

This a clear case of implied odds, as he has both intiative and position on the turn. You will often be folding the best hand and paying him off with worse. Against a donk like this, you will be able to get your money in much much better down the line.

[disko]

to be honest i think you are overestimating his range. i think you are much more likely to see 22, 99, J9, and AJ, especially given his dumb min raise preflop and the subsequent action. A lot of donks would play these hands this way. You may get him to fold a pair here but he also might not believe you and call and then you need to hit...

[disko]

what site do you play at and what is your handle? lol [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Jurrr]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a donk like this, you will be able to get your money in much much better down the line.

[/ QUOTE ]Lol I did not have much time, I needed to get unstuck from -$630 downswing asap [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[disko]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against a donk like this, you will be able to get your money in much much better down the line.

[/ QUOTE ]Lol I did not have much time, I needed to get unstuck from -$630 downswing asap [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

in that case wp sir!