Stealing UTG on the bubble and catch pieces of connected flop

[MEJG2]

I don't really mind the steal from utg, during the bubble. This flop is just awful with his range and he has you covered.

I don't like a shove. He has you covered, and he is not folding 77, 88, 99, AA, KK, AhKh, or AhQh to a shove. If he was playing connectors hoping to felt UTGs range on a good flop... he's not folding 89s, 78s, 56s, or 10Js (which I think are a less likely holding). Check Fold.

[Bakes]

He doesn't have us covered, but its still 25k effective into a 6.7k pot so, ya.

[MEJG2]

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He doesn't have us covered, but its still 25k effective into a 6.7k pot so, ya.

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Ah, I was looking at UTG+1. but close enough. Push still sucks.

[betgo]

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button (t45477)
SB (t20073)
BB (t52060)
Hero (t32125)
UTG+1 (t17504)
MP1 (t12559)
MP2 (t28896)
CO (t20186)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t3000</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t3000, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Flop: (t6700) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ???

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shove.

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Stop posting.

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Stop abusing posters and trying to suppress different points of views. NYWalker is one of the most interesting posters in this forum.

You have a pair, gutshot, and backdoor, and are 35% against AA. A push is good based on what you have, but it doesn't consider what your opponent is likely to have. The problem is you are in worse shape against 77-JJ, which is probably most of his flat calling range. You really hate to fold a combination draw, even a weak one, but I think it is the best play here.

[eBo]

For metagame purposes, a shove cannot be the best play here. I'd c-bet on the small side, say 3200.

[betgo]

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For metagame purposes, a shove cannot be the best play here. I'd c-bet on the small side, say 3200.

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I don't care about metagame. Villain has 77-AA or a flush draw like 75% of the time, that range has us crushed, and he is rearely folding. I would push if it wasn't significantly cEV-. Villain has a set frequently here.

[eBo]

Obv a shove sucks. If we're gonna shove now, we might as well have shoved PF.

[ZJ123]

c/r allin.

[Mr.WeakTight]

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Stop abusing posters and trying to suppress different points of views. NYWalker is one of the most interesting posters in this forum.

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that may be but his one word post left out the analysis that you provided about why a shove is correct. HSMTT is supposed to be about better posts, more analysis. one word responses are for SSMTT.

my comment on this play is that when you steal with garbage, it makes it easier to fold if re-popped. but when you get called your often in a precarious position. I think you usually want to have some kind of a starting hand, even on the bubble, especially in EP.

[allosaur]

I'm not hating a shove here. You have him covered and it's bubble. He'll think you're FOS obviously but at least you force him to have a callable hand. Is it the best EV play? Obviously not, BUT, in this particular situation on the bubble and with you raising UTG, I think a shove is a very viable option.