Just turned pro got a couple questions?

[Toerazor]

I was wondering what my 1st 2nd 3rd finsihes were i dont subsribe to sharkscope so I dont know what those numbers were. I play for first every single time and get real aggressive on bubble so if someone knows what those numbers are I would appreciate knowing them. Also I do not use pokertracker or any of those programs which I probably should take a look at. Thanks.

[ssnyc]

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lol, you can have way more then 20 BI downswings... think 100.

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Inconceivable.

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princess bride?

Only 2...3 people tops in this thread are going to get that.

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[CheeseMoney]

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means

[Fiasco]

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I was wondering what my 1st 2nd 3rd finsihes were i dont subsribe to sharkscope so I dont know what those numbers were. I play for first every single time and get real aggressive on bubble so if someone knows what those numbers are I would appreciate knowing them. Also I do not use pokertracker or any of those programs which I probably should take a look at. Thanks.

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@ th $30 and higher you seem to be 60/50/54

@ all levels youre 88/77/68

See, youll know youre ACTUALLY running hot when your distribution is 60/28/34 like mine. I have a black belt in coin flips.

[vers]

I posted that 100 BI thing a while back but reviewed my tourney manager to find out it was only 65 BI downswing @ 36s/60s. To be fair, I wasn't good enough to crush those games but should have been at least break even at the 60s and winning at the 36s (with my proper game selection).

[BradleyT]

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I play for first every single time

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Good luck with that sir!

[Fiasco]

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according to startracker the best player with an average by-in between 24-50$ after 2000 games (non turbo but im not sure) has an average roi of 14%, althought i beleve u can substain
a 20-25% if u play only 4-6 tables at time and playing so grat as you've done so far good job. (sry english)


[/ QUOTE ] I dont think that this is necessarily an indication that he will not continue to run like he has. It seems to me more likely that players who run at his high rate of ROI would be more likely to move up than stay at this level and thats why no one has such a high ROI, cause they tend to move up until they arent crushing the games as hard.

[CheeseMoney]

Part of the prob is that nobody knows what to expect for an roi at this level because almost all pros play higher volume and turbos.

[Toerazor]

Yeh I have realized that. I am going to move to 50 SNG pretty soon hopefully. I have stopped spending money and have been concentrating on just building the bankroll. I am very interested in how i run in the $50 SNG. I have only played around 40 of them total but have run at %40 ROI which I know is unattainable. But hopefully I will be on to the $50 SNG soon. I dont think there will be too much of a jump in competition.

[IFoldPktOnes]

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Curious, that's very different from the stats I came up with. Obviously due to the fact of 'conditioning' against the upper bound of 25%. I'm in agreement with the reasoning, but how exactly does that work?

This puts his most-likely ROI around 17-18%.

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I'm no statistician (more of an applied maths person) so I might have fudged some things. I took the output from the ROI simulator (16/13/14.75 dist 35% ROI) and fit it to a normal distribution. I then combined this with another modified normal distribution with mean -9.09 (rake) which went to zero at 25, to represent the distribution of players ROIs. The standard deviation of players ROIs was chosen fairly subjectively of course, heres a more optimistic output, it assumes ~1/3 of players beat the rake: