Movie Lines 1/5-1/7

dippydoo · #1 01-03-2007, 08:59 PM

Actually, Pinnacle has only one movie up right now...

Freedom Writers (must be rel. 1/5) 1/ 5-7
Fri 1/5 Opening 3 day wknd box office for Freedom Writers
201 Over 5 million +117
202 Under 5 million -133

FWIW, 45 minutes ago Over 5 million was at +186

DeezNuts · #2 01-03-2007, 09:22 PM

This movie sounds so stupid...UNDER!

Now please disregard my analysis and wait for the real analyzers to come to the thread.

DN

dippydoo · #3 01-04-2007, 11:53 AM

Ok..so where are all the movie experts?

Professorn · #4 01-04-2007, 12:14 PM

On which site is this able to play on?

Thanks

Utah · #5 01-04-2007, 12:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok..so where are all the movie experts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not an expert but I follow them. I didnt do a lot of analysis this week because it is such a crappy movie week but I like the under on this and I placed a small bet on it. The tracking puts it pretty close to $5 but I dont trust it. I havent even heard of Freedom Writers. There is only 1200 theaters and the reviews are mediocre. This feels like a $3 million movie.

Doosh · #6 01-05-2007, 11:56 AM

FWIW, I recall reading here that when the line hit -200 the record of that bet being correct was fairly high. Under for The Cleaner is -242 and not looking back. I have no analysis, other than that.

Utah · #7 01-05-2007, 12:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I recall reading here that when the line hit -200 the record of that bet being correct was fairly high. Under for The Cleaner is -242 and not looking back. I have no analysis, other than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think llabb did some analysis on this. However, I know of several movies with -200 lines that lost. Rocky (which even hit -400 on tradesports), Convenant, Idlewild, Crank, etc.

I certainly wouldnt blindly bet -200 lines.

Brenner Hayes · #8 01-06-2007, 12:17 AM

Early Friday evening theater reports seem to indicate that Freedom Writers will definitely go over 5 mil.

brendanb438 · #9 01-06-2007, 01:14 AM

As of 6PM PST, at the as-always AMC Encinitas 8 in SD County, CA...

HAPLY 79 (3 shows)
FRDMW 81 (2 shows)
CLNER 32 (3 shows)

HAPLY didn't even do what HOODWINKED did week 2, even with kids out of school. I'd say 50% of HOODWINKED's week 2 opening, meaning about 5.2 million.

FRDMW actually did what STEP UP's first two shows did; only difference is STEP UP had two more shows due to running-length. STEP UP also had more theatres. So maybe 40% of STEP UP's gross: 8.2 million.

CLNER Is about on par with what BEERFEST did, but had the advantage of kids being out of school. At 75% of BEERFEST's gross, it would be at 5.25 million for the weekend.

Of course, this is all totally preliminary.

Early reports as in the 1 theatre report that was cross posted to 3 different sites? Same person says that Cleaner should do $5 + also while other theatre reports are showing that evening shows of Cleaner had 5 out of 175 in the theatre.

Also that posters numbers are way off. Sure Step Up did $20 Mill opening weekend, in twice as many theatres and averaged 1 showing more per screen. I believe it also had way more than twice as many screens as Writers and was being given bigger theatres.

Based on just that guys numbers I would say maybe $5.5 Million.
To early to tell absolutely anything. I didn't play any of the junk this week because this is historically a slow weekend for movies.

-Brendan

Brenner Hayes · #10 01-06-2007, 02:03 AM

No, I wasn't refering to this one as I don't know how indicative this person's numbers usually are. You'll notice that I didn't mention any other of these movies like The Cleaner. I was referencing the very reliable notfabio who said that after reviewing many of the theaters in his purview, that Freedom Writers is definitely going over 6. As far as early indications go, it's the closest thing to the gold standard in the forums that I know of.