25NL A look at an implied odds scenario

[Khaos4k]

Ok, two cases of implied odds here. Preflop and on the flop.

UTG is a 40/8/0.6 over ~100 hands
CO is 23/10/0.86 over ~100 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($53.60)
UTG ($24.20)
MP ($37.75)
CO ($29.95)
Hero ($27.30)
SB ($19.40)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $1</font>, CO calls $1, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.75, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $3</font>, MP folds, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, BB folds.

<font color="blue">Ok, given the action so far we can put UTG on a big pocket pair. He limp reraised into a field of callers. Probably QQ+.

I am looking for a flop that brings me 2 pair, trips, or a flush draw. I do not trust any lone ace or jack, and am dumping it if he cbets. If I didn't have position I would be folding this without question.

My question is, is this profitable? </font>

Flop: ($11.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $5.25</font>, CO calls $5.25, Hero ?

<font color="blue"> Very low flop, villains must think there pocket pairs are good. A set or trips is very very unlikely given preflop.

I'm getting 4:1 needing 5:1. So this is implied odds. However, given the read of the opponents, and with position, we should be able to extract enough to make up for our pot odds.

I'm having some trouble with math though.

If a diamond falls that doesn't pair either opponents cards, we are about an 85%-90% favourite that they don't get a full house on the river. We will most likely win at least one stack.

If a diamond falls that does pair my opponents card, I lose the rest of my stack.

If no diamond falls, we reevaluate on the turn.

What are the odds that I get my diamond but still lose?

tl;dr
</font>

[filsteal]

If no diamond falls, villain will shove turn and you will fold.

So what you're asking is "How likely is it that a diamond hits on the turn, but either the turn or the river makes one of my opponents a boat?"

You are 18% to hit a diamond on the turn. On average, this breaks down as 16% diamonds that don't make someone a boat, and 2% diamonds that do.

So the 16% of the time you hit a diamond and are still best, your opponents have six combined outs to a boat on the river. So 12%x16% = a 2% chance that you'll then lose on the river.

So that makes a 14% chance you'll hit the flush on the turn and win, and a 4% chance you'll hit the flush on the turn and lose, assuming both your opponents have (different) overpairs.

[Chris_ca]

Preflop I would probably call but I'm not feeling very happy about it.

The flop is an easy call, you are getting the immeditate odds to call, to say nothing of implied. You should not be worried about a fullhouse at this point.

[filsteal]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop I would probably call but I'm not feeling very happy about it.

The flop is an easy call, you are getting the immeditate odds to call, to say nothing of implied. You should not be worried about a fullhouse at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP isn't worried about a FH on the flop. He's worried about the chances of making his flush on the turn but having either villain fill up on the turn or river. He's attempting to reduce his implied odds to account for the fact that he won't have the nuts.