NL$50: AKs flop a frush draw

Chargers In 07 · #1 10-06-2007, 02:32 AM

Villain is 24/7.5/1.5. Against a slightly worse player I'd shove the flop and if he lead I'd definitely raise and get allin but c/r represents alot more strength, doesn't it? How's my line?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 ($51.15)
CO ($9.25)
Button ($38.70)
SB ($51.25)
BB ($35.30)
UTG ($38.05)
Hero ($50)
MP1 ($56.20)
MP2 ($11.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.5, 5 folds, SB calls $2.25, 1 fold, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($8) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $6, SB raises to $16, UTG folds, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($40) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $29.5, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $40

CalledDownLight · #2 10-06-2007, 03:07 AM

shove this flop all day long

raymond715 · #3 10-06-2007, 03:19 AM

I agree im shoving flop here..by calling you are have now bricked turn and have to fold...I'd imagine you'd have a decent amount of FE by shoving flop and uber outs if called, only really worried about set here, even then you win enough to make shoving +EV. Unless turn is heart or maybe A/K you are facing tough decisions on remaining streets. I'd save myself the headache and shove flop.

Chargers In 07 · #4 10-06-2007, 03:26 AM

What do you think he has to make this a profitable shove?

Bluegrassplayer · #5 10-06-2007, 03:28 AM

Definitely push all in on the flop. If you think he's really got a monster you have to fold, but I don't see how that is could possibly be correct here.

He bet 10 dollars into a $20 pot, so it's hard to see any hands that you can't really have the odds for here. Even if your only outs are the flush draw, if you can see this hand to the river you have the odds to call this bet. If the k or the a are live however, you are suddenly standing much better, or even favored to this win this on the flop.

By just calling you also force him to bluff this on the river. There's too much money for him to check with anything other than completely nothing. He has to shove.

CalledDownLight · #6 10-06-2007, 03:28 AM

mid pairs, worse flush draws, 34, 10x, all kinds of hands. Its not like he has a set here that often and he never has 2 pair.

Bluegrassplayer · #7 10-06-2007, 03:30 AM

I could see him pushing with anything from 10/j to a set of fives here. regardless, you still odds I think, unless you are certain he has a set, which you can't be.

Specialwon · #8 10-06-2007, 03:30 AM

Grunch. You really need a stat for his cold calling frequency here. 24 is loose, but he may just be limping a lot, not necessarily calling a bunch of raises.

He could have an overpair here. I wonder about the funny bet sizing, 2.8x raise, don't really know what to make of that.

I work it out this way: I think he may have AA/JJ here about one third of the time. About one third the time it's a set and the rest is air or assorted KhJh /3h4h /ATo type hands.

Pokerstove says you are slightly behind that range at 47.5%, which would make a shove +ev with the dead money, and more so when when you add in some fold equity. But, it looks tight and I can see why you turned it down. I also don't totally trust pokerstove in this sort of analysis because it treats all the hands as an equal fit to the action.

Calling the flop raise is the safer option and obviously much lower variance. Maybe the overall expectation is a little lower, but you have a clearer win margin, getting 3:1 at that early stage and with a seemingly very aggressive opponent, I think I play it the same way.

Clearly his turn bet is enough to shut you out so I think you were right to give up at that point.

So, I play it the same way and save the aggro push for NL100 and above.

Edit: I don't really buy the mid pairs / weaker hands argument here with villains AF, those hands usually just call a flop bet.

raymond715 · #9 10-06-2007, 03:38 AM

w/o reads? worse FD/K-10 10-9 10- anything depending on your image...although his UTG limp/cold call smells like a pp making the set possible...it is really dependent on villian. If he's the type to think you are cb w/ air or knows you lay down marginal hands on scary boards to a raise, than obviously this play is +EV. If villian does this with a set and only a set, than shove wouldn't be right, as you have no FE and are behind now with 8 outs (10h fills villian)to nut flush. However, w/ out reads and a set being only one of villians likely holding among numerous others, I'd shove here on flop...as a side note i've butchered hands like this before when i flat call and brick hits turn. It leaves you with crappy tough decision when blank hits. I'm no pokerstove but i'd be interested to see the math on this one against villians likey holdings

Bluegrassplayer · #10 10-06-2007, 03:39 AM

I didn't read his raise so much as 2.8x raise, it's just to make the hero think about whether or not he wants to put 10 dollars into the pot. I think he was expecting the hero to make a continuation bet and then bet with his top pair personally. He knew if he made a bet now he wouldn't get any money, but if he checked it was the possible that the preflop raiser puts some money in with air and then drops the hand.