A noob Q part 2

[ALReturnsLOL]

ok please ignore that this was played poorly, [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($102.93)
SB ($129.66)
BB ($186.81)
UTG ($12.50)
MP ($49.25)
CO ($92.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $15</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $10.

Flop: ($31.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $22</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $53</font>, BB calls $149.81 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $256.31

ok I have him cont betting with 66 of the hands he raised pf, when I raise I have him folding out 32 of those hands

so this is the math problem I set up


48% of the time we win +51 when he folds 52% of the time we lose 53, netting an overall loss, correct?

[yellowjack]

your last sentence is a bit confusing from lack of punctuation

we win $53.50 when he folds (48% of the time)
we lose $53 when he reraises/calls (52%)

overall net loss is correct

[yellowjack]

btw i said reraises/calls since i assumed we are done with the hand after the flop raise

[ALReturnsLOL]

[ QUOTE ]
btw i said reraises/calls since i assumed we are done with the hand after the flop raise

[/ QUOTE ]

yes this is correct. So what is the net loss on the hand?

[yellowjack]

to calculate the EV,

0.48*(+$53.50) + 0.52*(-$53) = $1.88

[Pokerfarian]

Most of the times you've raised his contbet it's probably been to a decent size, not a way too low amount like here. So he folds a lot less here. I like the CR bluff but you need to be making proper sized raises &amp; having him folding significantly &gt;50% (and/or contiuning if he doesnt fold)

[yellowjack]

If we're risking less, than the bluff needs to succeed less often for it to be profitable. I think your assumption of villain "folding a lot less here" is incorrect. If the villain calls a flop raise, he has to expect a turn bet the size of the pot, which would put him allin. We might as well make the flop raise as small as possible but large enough so that we can put him allin on the turn if we wish.

In this case, a raise to say $98 ($22 + $76) will not get BB to fold any more often than a raise to something like $70, therefore the raise to $70 has a higher EV. This extends all the way down to a raise to $53 for the reasons listed above.