50nl flopped 2nd nuts OOP

[Numfar]

[ QUOTE ]
You are all insane on the river as a shove is madness, just call.

[/ QUOTE ]He's only got $20 left so he's not folding. If we are ahead of his range enough to call then aren't we ahead of the same range enough to shove? Or are we making a pot odds based call on the River because we think we are behind the range?

[Chomp]

I really dislike the entire line, and with respect to Derosnec who is da man, this just screams JQ to me by the time we get to the end. I know we should be thinking in terms of ranges, but seriously, by the time he raises river I think his range looks like this: {JQ}. Up till then, his range is wider than the Grand Canyon, but at the end, JQ is it IMO.

On river, shoving is HORRIBLE IMO. To be honest, I don't think a fold is horrible to save $17: I think we need 20% equity (my head-sums suck), and I don't think we're anywhere close to that. And I NEVER fold sets.

Anyway, the damage is done by then: hero has failed to play his strong hand for value on a flop that to me looks like it could get scary quick (which it did). I also think if you are going to c/r turn, you need to do it for more.

I lead flop, hope for raise from OP, overcards or a call from loads of stuff {JQ, TJ, AK, 6x, 7x, 8x, whatever}. The turn, maybe stack a donk, but actually in this case I think I just go again for a big bet - near pot.

[Numfar]

I can't see how its more likely that he called a c/r with a gutshot rather than him having KT, 55 or 88. Not saying he wouldn't call with a GSSD but he's a 59/30 so he's playing for stacks with 2 Pair and would have slow played his sets.

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see how its more likely that he called a c/r with a gutshot rather than him having KT, 55 or 88. Not saying he wouldn't call with a GSSD but he's a 59/30 so he's playing for stacks with 2 Pair and would have slow played his sets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, 3 things on this:

1. All the hands you mention are certinaly in villain's turn calling range, but for this villain I'm not sure we can we can say something like "he's more likely to call turn with X than Y". I just don't think we have enough information to be able to make an accurate guesstimate on this (notwithstanding standard combo counts of course)
2. Hero's c/r size is so small that it is hardly likely to deter villain and the c/r size does nothing to define villain's hand...it could still be A-hi, a made str8, 2p, a set, a draw, whatever.
3. Whilst I agree about the wide turn range, I think that ranges collapses right down on river when we are raised. At that point, it's JQ and not a lot else.

Just IMO (running at 0.18ptbb/100 this month ftw).

[Numfar]

[ QUOTE ]
Just IMO (running at 0.18ptbb/100 this month ftw).

[/ QUOTE ]Up for the month? That would be so awesome [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]. Just dropped 5 buyins in an hour at NL25 trying to clear a bonus. God I hate poker.

Thanks for the reply [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].