*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[kyro]

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Minnesota - yuch - I'm a cheesehead - I think they will win but the spread should only be 2.5

Dallas - wins by more then 1

Indy - no let down

oakland - yea - Chicago IS that pathetic - Oakland WINS the game!

Seattle - crushes SF!


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I agree with all of these. I also am using a cross between DVOA and relative MOV. Gonna start this week and see how it goes.

[kyro]

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It's shocking how little respect Clev is getting.

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Consensus says 61.2% for Cleveland, 38.8% for Pittsburgh.

There aren't that many sharps in the world.

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9.5-10 is a very fair line. I'll probably stay away, but I might put 1u down on Steelers 9.5, if it's still available, solely on the fact that Pittsburgh has been so incredibly dominant at home, and I don't think the Browns match up well with them at all.

[Rustjive]

It is a fair line - I am really only responding to the 'Browns get no respect' line. The Browns most definitely get respect, and the % of Browns bets would seem to show that.

Still not touching it.

[kyro]

My early game plays for the week.

Going official now. Got money deposited. I plan on playing a lot of games because I really want to see how this system works and it's far less fun to just watch the system without having anything invested. So best of luck to me!

Bengals +4.0 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91u

Bah. Wanted this at +4.5. There is no explanation for the Ravens being favored by more than 3, except that Cinci is 2-6 and Baltimore is 4-4. But MOV and DVOA both have Cinci as the better team, and just compare the common games between them. This should probably be Cinci +2, but I'll take the 2 point gift.

23-21 Ravens

Steelers -9.5 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91u

I think this is a fair line with the exception of two things.

1) Pittsburgh is 4-0 at home, with no win being less than 21 points.

2) Cleveland's strength is in its offense, particularly it's passing offense. Well, Pitt's strength is its defense, particularly its pass defense, leading the league in ypg, and ypa. I like the Browns, but not in this game.

35-17 Stillers

Vikings +6 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91u

Green Bay is ranked 7th in overall DVOA. Quick, who's ranked 8th?

This is actually one of the most off lines when compared with DVOA. But the Packers match up pretty well with Minnesota, being strong at rush defense and pass offense. Still, 6 points is far too much to give a team that actually isn't that much better than its divisional opponent.

27-24 Packers

Dolphins -3 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91

This. Is. Jeopardy!

This team has 4 losses by exactly 3 points, including an overtime loss IN Washington. Any thoughts? The answer is the Miami Dolphins.

Playing at home hasn't been very pretty, and the 35-17 loss vs the Raiders is a little disconcerting, but when you look at their schedule and the results, the Oakland game is the only one that really makes you cringe. Jesse Chatman isn't Ronnie Brown, and Cleo Lemon isn't Trent Green, but they haven't been terrible. I expect an old, mature (and now rested) defense to come out and play some football. Dolphins win their first of the year.

17-16 Dolphins

Bills/Dolphins U41 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91

As I said before, 3 of Buffalo's 8 games have hit 41. Their opponents? Pats/Boys/Bengals. The Dolphins don't have that same type of offense, and I believe their D plays well enough to keep the total down.

YTD 0-0-0
+0u

[aufan91]

WAS -3
GB/MIN O40.5

[Rustjive]

I've been kinda tiptoeing around the Bills/Dolphins discussion, but I'd just like to note - if you are giving games to Miami which they've lost because of luck or what not, you might as well give games to an easily 6-2 Buffalo team. The Bills are a onside kick recovery and a crazy Elam kick away from that.

The bye week is worrisome, but in terms of DVOA or any ratings, keep in mind that that number is at least a bit inflated by the 2nd half against the Patriots. This is a Dolphins team that lost with a healthy Trent Green, Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers in New York - Buffalo beat New York in New York by 10.

As for the defense, what makes you think that being rested has to do with anything? Those Dolphins are ranked 31st in the league according to DVOA - looking at scoring averages would've told me that at first glance. 31 points to the woeful Jets, 35 to the woeful Raiders - color me unconvinced.

[kyro]

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I've been kinda tiptoeing around the Bills/Dolphins discussion, but I'd just like to note - if you are giving games to Miami which they've lost because of luck or what not, you might as well give games to an easily 6-2 Buffalo team. The Bills are a onside kick recovery and a crazy Elam kick away from that.

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I realize that. My only point is Miami is not the worst team in the league, and saying they are 6 points worse than the Bills because they are 0-8 is just wrong.

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The bye week is worrisome, but in terms of DVOA or any ratings, keep in mind that that number is at least a bit inflated by the 2nd half against the Patriots.

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It's not that inflated. It's 1/16 of the season. It's also "deflated" by the Pats going up 42-7 in the first half. That's not exactly what we could expect playing a billion halves of football.

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This is a Dolphins team that lost with a healthy Trent Green, Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers in New York - Buffalo beat New York in New York by 10.

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And Buffalo beat New York in Buffalo by 3. I can play this game too.

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As for the defense, what makes you think that being rested has to do with anything? Those Dolphins are ranked 31st in the league according to DVOA - looking at scoring averages would've told me that at first glance. 31 points to the woeful Jets, 35 to the woeful Raiders - color me unconvinced.

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The Jets may be woeful, but their defense is their main concern. They're below average in offense, but not grossly so. The Dolphins defense is atrocious, for sure, but it's also better than the Jets defense which the Bills put up a total of 30 points on over 2 games. I guess my point about them being rested is pretty silly, but really, I don't see the Dolphins team going 0fer. Losing 4 games by a FG is just unlucky. I just feel that having an experienced defense, which admittedly is not what it once was, will get up for the game against Buffalo.

[MacGuyV]

Line looks about right to me. I watch the Bills every week & they're tough to get a read on. They lose when they score on defense & special teams and last week they win by double digits on the rare occasion they lose the special teams battle. It's impossible to believe the defense is good looking at the roster, but they've played well 5 games in a row. The OL is pretty good in pass protection but the run blocking sucks - Lynch has to do everything on his own. Take away Evans and their offense is putrid - I don't know if the Dolphins can do that, but I just wouldn't lay points on the road w/ this team.

[aufan91]

Browns +10

[kyro]

I didn't see this post at first. I'll take a few and respond

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I really fail to see why you think Pittsburgh is underrated. They've been touted as being the "3rd best AFC team" all season.

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You're right. I take that part back.

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The Steelers are 2-2 on the road against teams with a combined record of 13-19, one of which was week 1 in Cleveland in a game that was basically handed to them on a silver platter. With the condition of the Browns in week 1, you could replace the Steelers with ANY team in the league the Browns would have lost. Cincy...come on.

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The Steelers have been a complete Jekyll and Hyde team on the road, no doubt. I won't argue this. But....

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At home Pittsburgh's opponents have a combined record of 14-18. They beat up on a Buffalo team that started the year 1-4 and have just recently turned it around but were playing awful to start the year. San Fran is 2-6. Seattle is exactly what their record shows, a .500 mediocre team that looks different every week. And finally last nite against Baltimore. Baltimore is [censored] awful, 4 turnovers in the first quarter?? Pittsburgh's average starting field position during the first half was the 50 yard line.

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At home they've been spectacular. How do we know Buffalo and Cleveland are much improved? Cleveland won in Week 2 and Buffalo had a 1 pt loss to Denver in Week 1, a blowout against NE in Week 3, and is since 4-1, but there's nothing to suggest that they underperformed drastically when they played the Steelers from where they are now. It's possible Pittsburgh just played great against them.

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So overall Pittsburgh is 6-2 against teams with a combined record of 27-37, and their 1st 2 wins of the year came against teams who have shown drastic improvement since the first 2 weeks of the season.

On the other side of the ball Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the league since week 2. The only better offenses right now are NE, IND, and DAL. The Browns O-Line has been perfect, allowing only 7 sacks in the last 7 games. The Browns gave the Pats the best fight they had all year before IND, including the Pats only scoreless quarter all season before this week. Remember CLE had the ball with time left and only down by 10 before a fumble-6 gave the pats a miracle spread cover.

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Pittsburgh is blowing teams out. Cleveland is not. Just look at common games. You talk about how Seattle isn't very impressive, and Baltimore sucks, and Cinci is awful (they're not by the way).

Pitt beat Seattle by 21, Cleveland by 3 (both at home)
Pitt beat Baltimore by 31, Cleveland by 14 (both at home)
Pitt beat Cinci by 11, Cleveland by 6 (Clev at home, Pitt on road)

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A final note. Cleveland wants this game...bad. The Steelers have been a pain in their ass since returning to the league, not to mention that its been their biggest rivalry for years. Cleveland embarrassed themselves in week 1 and now have something to prove.

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Please go up to James Farrior and tell him that Cleveland wants this game. I'm sure he'll be happy to take it easy on them.

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The Steelers are getting 10 points in a rivalry/division game against a 5-3 team that has a score to settle with them? Tons of value in CLE +10.

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Stop looking at records. Those are, for the most part, meaningless. Watch me manipulate stats.

Pittsburgh has a +12.75 relative margin of victory.
Cleveland has a +0.25 relative margin of victory.
Pittsburgh is scoring 1.199 times what their opponents are giving up and allowing .601 times what their opponents are scoring.
Cleveland is scoring 1.348 times what their opponents are giving up and allowing 1.321 times what their opponents are scoring.

Simple math, on a neutral field you could expect the score to be something like 33-17. Factor in Pitt's homefield advantage, and voila.

Or, we could look at DVOA, which is probably a better representation of a team's skill, and it has Pitt as about 6.5 points better than Cleveland. Given the fact Pitt is playing far better at home than away (more than the 3 points you'd generally give to a home team), I'd say Pitt -9.5 has plenty of value.