UMD @ UVa, 10/14 [predictions inside]

[mulebennett]

My background: current Terp student, former Charlottesville resident. Though I'm a Terp fan right now, UVa has a place in my heart and I always root for them--except when they play us.

The Terps are traveling to Charlottesville exactly one week after allowing Georgia Tech to score 13 unanswered points to win 27-23 in Atlanta. Virginia returns home having lost 3 of their last 4, most recently losing by 10 at East Carolina. But the ECU game wasn't as close as the score shows: with 2 minutes left and up 17, ECU let UVA score one last time on a 63-yard drive.

Fast-forward to this week. The Terps are furious having lost the game at Georgia Tech. Skeptics have been doubting the Terps all season from their lackluster performances against William and Mary, Midd Tenn St (who gave Louisville bettors a reason to hate them) and last (and definitely least), Florida International. The game at Tech was their perfect chance to show that they are a legitimate contender. The Terps are hungrier than ever to beat a very beatable Virginia team who has looked bad all season.

The Cavs are 1-1 at home this year, beating Wyoming in overtime when Wyoming’s kicker missed a PAT, and losing to Western Michigan. Home field advantage in Scott Stadium is currently out-the-window. The Terps still have a reason to be fighting this season, because with a win at Virginia, the Terps will improve to 4-2 (1-1 ACC) and will play 3 of their next 4 games at home against the likes of NC State, Florida State and Miami FL. This is a game that Maryland needs more than ever right now.

Both defenses are allowing more yardage than their offense is producing. Yes, the Terps got outgained by FIU and MTSU, but we also hung in there with Georgia Tech and West Virginia in terms of yardage. Sam Hollenbach, the Terps QB, has the skills to be a good quarterback, but lacks the decision-making. Luckily he’ll have some time to make decisions. He’s only been sacked 9 times all year, 5 of which came last week against Georgia Tech. The Terps defense allows 340 yards per game; luckily UVa hasn’t been able to put up 340 yards all season—no, not even against lowly Duke. UVa has a fair defense, they aren’t pushovers but Maryland’s rush attack has been efficient all season, splitting carries between starter Lance Ball (78 rush ypg) and Keon Lattimore (51 rush ypg). Terps averaged 4.1 and 5.0 yards per carry against West Virginia and Georgia Tech, respectively. Freshman wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey may have had his breakout game against Georgia Tech, catching 5 balls for 111 yards. Through 6 games, UVa has thrown three Pick-6s.

On the other side of the ball UVa seems to think that senior tailback Jason Snelling is the saving grace for the Cavs after his 103 yard performance against East Carolina. Snelling couldn’t break 100 yards on Duke’s defense, though, and was held to 23 yards on 12 carries against Georgia Tech. Snelling is only averaging 64 yards a game on the ground, no reason to think that he’s gonna keep the Cavs in the game. The worst part for UVa is their passing game, though. They have started three—THREE—quarterbacks this season, settling on Jameel Sewell, an athletic 6-3 215-pound quarterback who runs a 4.7-forty. That would be great if he didn’t play like his helmet was on backwards. Through 3 games as the full-time starter, he has failed to throw for more than 125 yards. The number one quarterback rating on the team goes to junior wideout Emmanuel Byers, who has thrown 2-2 for two touchdowns—both off trick plays.

Bottom line, the Terps will control the flow of the game as the success of the rushing game will free up time for Hollenbach to test out his passing game. Cornerback Josh Wilson and safety JJ Justice should keep the wide receivers in check all game, which shouldn’t be a problem since UVA’s leading receiver is averaging 42 yards and 4.5 catches a game. UVa’s only hope is keeping KR Josh Wilson in check, as they have only allowed returns of 30-or-more yards twice this season.

My prediction: Terps 24, Cavs 14 in a game that won’t be thrilling to watch, but does have heavy implications for the Terps.

Hope this was informative, helpful, hell, even a little interesting. Looking forward to seeing what everybody thinks of this game. I'm going home for the game and look forward to watching my two favorite teams battle.