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Old 10-02-2007, 11:18 AM
cheburashka cheburashka is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 374
Default Open up pre-flop?

OK, so I’m kind of a statistics nerd, which is one reason why I enjoy this game, despite my persistent inability to get my ROI above zero (getting close, though!)

One thought I’ve had is that I’m just not playing enough hands to create situations where I can (1) create opportunities on lucky flops, as I see others do so often, and (2) get more action on hands where I have a big edge. I’m getting a bit more confident in my post-flop play, so this may be a good time to open up a bit.

I thought quite a bit about my pre-flop range, and it is approximately as follows:

EP (10% of hands)
Raise: JJ+, AQ+, AJs, KQs
Raise/Limp 50/50: 77-TT, JTs, T9s
Usualy limp: 22-66

MP (16% of hands)
Raise: 66+, AT+, A7-9s, KQ, SCs T9-QJ
Raise/Limp 50/50: SCs 65-98, KJ, QTs
Usually limp: 22-44, A2-6s

LP (22% of hands)
Raise: 22+, Axs, A8o+, KQ, KJ, KT, SCs 65-QJ, Suited one-gappers 97-QT (I don’t think I ever open-limp from LP, but I will often call rather than re-raise with a lot of this range.)

Now there are a lot of caveats to this, obviously—whether I’m opening or not, whether there are raisers or limpers in there, who the raisers/limpers are, stack sizes, stage of the tournament, etc.

But overall, this range says that I should be playing about 16% of pots, and this seems to be about the case. My pokertracker stats over 12k hands shows me at 19/12, but (1) I’ve tightened up a bit since the beginning, and (2) I have about 30% VPIP from the SB due to limps with great pot odds. Positionally, I play about twice as many hands from late position as early position, so that is in line.

In an earlier post, Sherman intimated that his stats are wider than this. And according to my pokertracker, I don’t see anyone with a decent amount of hands who is as tight as I am. On the other hand, I’ve been watching a bunch of PXF histories (betgo, bond, the alex, willd, ronfezbuddy), and I almost always correctly guess their pre-flop decisions (the only exception is Nath).

So my question is: What other hands should/could/might I be opening? What should be the priorities? Should I try some non-suited connectors (JTo, T9o, 98o)? Maybe some weaker Aces or Kings?

Alternatively, is there anything in my range that is terrible? I need to know!

Waddaya think?
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