Live 4/8 - c/r the turn for value?

[Fnord]

[ QUOTE ]
Why no 3bet on the flop, don't we have a fairly big equity advantage here against 4 opponents?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's just a non-nut straight draw with a backdoor flush draw. I wouldn't be pumping up this flop but would love to see numbers that prove me wrong.

[Scarmiglio]

I'm not seeing monsters. I was simply saying that a better straight could be out there. I wouldn't have c/r the turn if I thought I was up against a made straight. I think that 2 sb on the flop is exactly the number that I want to have go in with my hand in this situation.

[Fnord]

Don't get me wrong. We have good equity, but just not the kind of edge that I'm looking to pump on either street. Lots of ways to finish second best and it's pretty easy to check/raise a straight when we hit. My line here ~95% of the time is to check intending to call with the option to run without the ball if I think I can isolate big cards. Given the action, I'm not getting a "For Sale" vibe here.

[Scarmiglio]

You have a good point. Perhaps the key to this play is having some fold equity to go along with it. As it was, I knew that no-one was folding the turn.

We could c/r a straight if we hit, but the river is likely to check through if a flush card hits

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
You have a good point. Perhaps the key to this play is having some fold equity to go along with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

nah, on a total draw you want everyone to fold or no one to fold, anything in between sucks

[James.]

more bets on the flop.

as for the turn, i can go either way depending on CO's aggression and your table image. if CO wouldn't 3bet very often and they think you're passive, it's fine(unless it goes so far in the other direction they crap their pants and fold out because you clearly have quads). you're putting in 25% of the money and even after discounting, surely you have at least 30% equity.

[Fnord]

[ QUOTE ]
surely you have at least 30% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope

332,184 games 9.691 secs 34,277 games/sec

Board: 5d 6s 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.719% 23.46% 03.38% 77936 11212.95 { 7s4s }
Hand 1: 18.277% 16.60% 01.76% 55141 5841.45 { random }
Hand 2: 18.436% 16.76% 01.76% 55680 5833.20 { random }
Hand 3: 18.265% 16.58% 01.76% 55090 5852.95 { random }
Hand 4: 18.303% 16.61% 01.77% 55176 5891.45 { random }

From there adjust downward a bit because your opponents will have better than random hands.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
surely you have at least 30% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope

332,184 games 9.691 secs 34,277 games/sec

Board: 5d 6s 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.719% 23.46% 03.38% 77936 11212.95 { 7s4s }
Hand 1: 18.277% 16.60% 01.76% 55141 5841.45 { random }
Hand 2: 18.436% 16.76% 01.76% 55680 5833.20 { random }
Hand 3: 18.265% 16.58% 01.76% 55090 5852.95 { random }
Hand 4: 18.303% 16.61% 01.77% 55176 5891.45 { random }

From there adjust downward a bit because your opponents will have better than random hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was referring to the turn when we pick up the flush draw. restove?

[Fnord]

213,809 games 6.568 secs 32,553 games/sec

Board: 5d 6s 9h 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.119% 24.81% 01.31% 53053 2791.07 { 7s4s }
Hand 1: 18.512% 17.22% 01.29% 36819 2760.98 { random }
Hand 2: 18.484% 17.16% 01.32% 36690 2829.48 { random }
Hand 3: 18.470% 17.16% 01.31% 36692 2798.57 { random }
Hand 4: 18.416% 17.09% 01.32% 36547 2827.90 { random }


Still not 30% against best case everyone follows (big street aggression is likely to lose at least one player) and no one bothers to look at their cards. Also, if I wasn't lazy and put in a wide range of hands that caught some of that board, having a paired board will hurt a lot more. It's really hard to have a lot of drawing equity with only one card to come...

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
213,809 games 6.568 secs 32,553 games/sec

Board: 5d 6s 9h 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.119% 24.81% 01.31% 53053 2791.07 { 7s4s }
Hand 1: 18.512% 17.22% 01.29% 36819 2760.98 { random }
Hand 2: 18.484% 17.16% 01.32% 36690 2829.48 { random }
Hand 3: 18.470% 17.16% 01.31% 36692 2798.57 { random }
Hand 4: 18.416% 17.09% 01.32% 36547 2827.90 { random }


Still not 30% against best case everyone follows (big street aggression is likely to lose at least one player) and no one bothers to look at their cards. Also, if I wasn't lazy and put in a wide range of hands that caught some of that board, having a paired board will hurt a lot more. It's really hard to have a lot of drawing equity with only one card to come...

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. i don't know what i was thinking. with the paired board our equity is hurt as well. i apparently had some ghost outs figured in my head. we need more opponents. thanks for stoving it Fnordy.