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#31
01-13-2007, 02:28 AM
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Re: Variance
[ QUOTE ]
My biggest is 300BB (though only at mid-stakes) but I am certain bigger can happen. After my 93BB in 140 hands yesterday in which I played great, I'm open to anything! If you can have a 300BB ds, then of course you CAN have 400, 500 etc. I remember Stox had over 400BB recently. Just hope this evil never points it's finger in your direction! [/ QUOTE ] I think you are confusing me with someone else. 
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#33
01-13-2007, 03:10 AM
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Re: Variance
[ QUOTE ]
Has anyone done any work on determine how normally distributed winrates are? I'm wondering if the fat-tail phenomenon applies here. Sure seems like a plausible explanation. [/ QUOTE ] I thought i would provide a link from the archives that is in my bookmarks that addresses this issue... variance winrates and expectation beachbum's post towards the end of the thread is quite relevant... Also ggbman, there are several ways of calculating risk of ruin; do you know which method that calculator site uses ? this calculation varies alot depending on what variables you focus on and the one you link to may be very different to the one dean uses...
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#36
01-13-2007, 07:07 AM
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Re: Variance
[ QUOTE ]
So please either soothe my fears or let me know what I am in for, as a 450bb downswing would make me go crazy. [/ QUOTE ] Dean, I hereby benevolently attempt to scare the sh!t out of you so that you don't go busto at some point. Almost literally every player I know that has logged a lot of hands has had at least one downswing in the 500BB area. The games steadily get tougher and this effect is amplified when players move to higher limits where the competition is stronger. We have only heard of a handful of established winners going backward 1000BB+ so far, but I suspect that is sheerly a function of the number of hands we have collectively played and how many people we consider established winners. I suspect that a year from now we will have heard of 10 or 20 more cases of 1000BB downswings from people we "know" have have a decent or better edge. I also strongly suspect that a number players who were in EV terms winners have hit these dreadful stretches early in their careers and gone busto or just decided that they must not be winners at all. I remember posting questions about downswings almost two years ago and essentially the consensus was that 300BB was HUGE and that if you had one that size there was almost certainly something wrong. Anyone with a 500BB downswing back then would have been immediately written off as a certain loser. We need to look to the guys who have the track records prior to their downswings for the evidence that it can happen. They don't all of the sudden forget how to play. They don't all of the sudden develop a prohibitive tilt problem after posting solid results for 500K or a million hands. They aren't just breakeven players who were lucky their entire careers. Variance simply caught up to them and dealt them a brutal blow. My table selection criteria is virtually unparalleled and I literally never ever ever tilt and yet I am quite confident that I will have a 1000BB downswing in the next million hands (if I live long!). Playing with less than 1000BB worth of bankroll is criminal in my opinion. Playing with less than 500BB is suicidal. Cartman
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#37
01-13-2007, 09:19 AM
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Re: Variance
I guess I'll chime in.
Variance follows some statistical patterns, but no laws. The worst feeling in the world is when you just can't win a hand. There is no guarantee that a downswing is going to change at somepoint, just a likelihood. But if you play long enough, everything is likely to happen. See, Dean, I don't know if you play live at all or not, but there are certain things that are guaranteed live. For example, when the local donator loses KK to AA, he'll say "I finally pick up kings, and I have to run into Aces, what are the chances of that?" Well, on this very next hand, the chance is very small. In your next session, it's also unlikely. In the next year? It's almost guaranteed to happen. What are the chances of a winning player having a 1000BB downswing? Well, starting your very next hand, it's very small. Starting your next session? It's still very small. 8 tabling for 8 hours a day for two years? It's likely. In your OP, you said you wanted your fears to be calmed (I think you said that anyways...and I **know** I'm too lazy to check). Well, your fears can't be put away entirely. If you want to guarantee that you never have a 1kBB downswing, quit poker forever when you hit your first ever 900BB downswing. As for my screenname...it was pretty public knowledge. But I don't see what good it would do. Of my first 2000BB downswing (which has kept increasing online, I still can't win...I don't have a going problem, I have a growing problem), I fully admit that I lost 250ish BB to tilt. Of the next 500BB, I lost probably 250BB to tilt. Then, I basically stopped playing online. I went back to playing live, and I win consistently up to 100-200. I tinker around online still, and I'm still losing. I'M TINKERING AROUND....I'M A LOSING PLAYER AT 3-6. And, so of my last 200 or 300BB, none of it is tilt. Towards the end of the first 2000BB (when I for the most part played well), I got staked for many tens of thousands of dollars. These people staking me are also very successful online players, and they oftened watch me play. One of them lives in Vegas (well, 2, actually, but 1 is part of this story), and I went out to visit him for a week or 10 days. During this time, he'd sit behind me and watch me play online. This lasted for maybe 2 days and 3000 hands. Then he got up, punched a wall, and said "forget it,I can't stand to watch anymore, this is worse than I've ever seen anybody run, ever". He's been a pro for 9 years. [as an aside, i lost all of this staking money. i, however, cannot lose my friends' money, so i have paid them all back in their entirety except for one last guy i owe $3000 to. i still continue to crush live games. and i can't beat 3-6 online] I have people ask me, about every 2 or 3 weeks via PM, "hey, aren't you the guy who ran really bad? I'm running bad now, what advice do you have?". I tell them "I can't give you any advice. variance is worse than anything else in the world, except stale donuts. I still lose". And, with all this losing, I have friends telling me I should coach players. I have one friend who does coach for big bucks ask me for lessons. So, you can speculate all that you want that I'm a losing player. And you can certainly go hire a team of players to go digging through their hand histories to find hands where I was (admittedly) on tilt. My screenname was pretty common knowledge. For most of the party skins, it was either JoshyPooh or GummywormAA. Go have a blast. And, after having that blast, you can come back here and report your findings. But if you think that will make it so that you know more about variance than people who have played a lot more than you, people who have lived through it, and people who still have a better winrate at 30-60 than you (even after going through my downswing) over a larger sample of hands, then why are you even here? It seems that you've already ignored the sage advice of many in this thread. You seem to want to hold on to the notion that BK can't beat 10-20 and Josh W can't beat 3-6 and any downswing more than a couple hundred BB must be tilt induced and and and. I could literally rattle off 10 names in 10 seconds of people I know who have had a 1000BB downswing in the last 12 months who play higher than 30-60 on a regular basis and make a ton of money doing so. I mean, these are fulltime players with no other source of income who lose 1000BB and don't even think of dropping down. Many of them are 2+2ers, but not all. What were you hoping for when you started this thread? That's a serious question. Many of the best and most respected posters are telling you "hey, it can happen", and you still don't believe it. Were you just hoping that there were going to be enough novices to come on here and say "no, it's impossible" for you to hang your hat on? And if you never want a 900BB downswing, quit poker forever when you hit 800. Josh edit to add: I forgot about one guy who staked me in tournaments and I lost about $5000 of his money that I haven't paid back yet, either. It's a long process. To those who I haven't paid back, I'm still very sorry. Also to add...this probably makes me sound upset, which I am not.
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#39
01-13-2007, 11:27 AM
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Re: Variance
dean,
just from talking some NL with you on aim, i got the impression that you were likely running pretty well. you said things like u thought everyone sucks and that its an easy game and that you 'should be at 10-20NL very soon'. at the time, i was thinking that u are most likely running well, and that you dont have a realistic view bc of it. james282 and moreso, ggbman did the same thing when they switched to limit. poker is an easy game and its hard to see why people struggle when you are on a nice heater.
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