Told you I was running bad

[derosnec]

ok, pot odds aside, what i think is interesting about this hand is what villain should do on the river.

assume we are villain, we have a straight or set. what is the most +EV river line against a TAG given the way the hand developed?

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

assume we are villain, we have a straight or set. what is the most +EV river line against a TAG given the way the hand developed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Straight: shove.

Set: probably shove, too.

In order for anything else to work your opponent needs to think you were bluffing the turn. But if they're giving you credit for that, they probably aren't folding to your shoves.

[matrix]

No TAG is going to be folding the river if they called the turn raise from Villains POV. (or probably shouldn't be)

Just valueshove river with your straight set as Villain and get well paid.

As Hero I don't understand what has changed on the river that makes us think twice about folding.

We called the raise on the turn getting 2:1 odds + a bunch of implieds - the river is a brick - nothing has changed and now we're getting better odds just without a boat/quad redraw.

We flopped bottom set - if the river pairs the board we wouldn't think much about calling cos then we beat the straight. We'd still get stacked by a flopped set tho.

I call here but I'm not super happy about it - we beat 555 and 2pairs and bluffs - it depends on the MP player - if we fold here and can use our position in later hands to stack MP we'll drag a 400bb pot - if we get stacked here that would only be a 200bb pot. If MP is the kind of player I am not going to win a big pot from without a nuts v 2nd nuts type of hand I am more inclined to call and take my chances vs this villain here and now.

I hate calling a big turn raise and then folding to a brick on the river - 1/3 of our stack is in this pot when we call the turn raise so we ought to already have a plan for teh river before calling the turn.