Theoretical: Making -EV bets on the river

[Gamblor]

I couldn't really find anything in search for this so here goes.

Theoretical example: You're in a pretty tight game but with bad players who fold too often.

So you've been doing a lot of happy stealing and have determined that your LAG strategy is the most profitable.

Some people limp, and you raise 98s on the button, because a C-bet will take this pot down if it doesn't hit anyone hard. The flop is Q94 with some flush draw. You bet and one MP player calls. You decide he has a flush draw or JT most of the time here, any hand that beats you he would play faster. The turn bricks off and it goes check-check or you make a smallish value bet vs. the draw. The river bricks too and your opponent checks.

It makes logical sense to me, that this would be a good time for a bet. First, it is painfully obvious that a bet against many players thinking on the first level and who will not call you with a worse hand on the river, or fold a better hand, is -EV. But I feel there is some value in a bet - specifically the value of not giving away information about your hand.

The value of not showing your opponents that you raise non-premium hands is worth giving up some EV on that one hand, so you can continue to steal often and win your chips while they ignorantly continue to play too tight.

Is this a play any of you often think about or make? Is the logic faulty in any way?

[Hoopster81]

I don't know how you play, but it doesn't many orbits for anyone with a brain to figure out I'm not only raising premium hands.

[roo400]

yea...they gotta know you don't have the goods if you raise 1/3 of your hands

[mattaasen]

lol

[ogdundar]

You are on to something, however your reason for making these bets is wrong. As pointed out already, the fact that you are playing non-premium hands fast preflop is obvious after a few orbits, whether hands have gone to showdown or not. You shouldn't make a -EV bet to hide this information.

These bets are a way of creating an overall riverplay which is very hard to counter/exploit. From a strictly EV point of view, you should have a somewhat polarized betting range here. You either have top pair+ or you have nothing. Being too polarized is however very exploitable against thinking opponents, especially if you play them regularly. If you make the bet with weak middle pair sometimes, you will be able to make more valuebets on the river and possibly bluff more if you pick your spots well. It's all about fitting your overall game.

[BadMoFu]

[ QUOTE ]
You are on to something, however your reason for making these bets is wrong. As pointed out already, the fact that you are playing non-premium hands fast preflop is obvious after a few orbits, whether hands have gone to showdown or not. You shouldn't make a -EV bet to hide this information.

These bets are a way of creating an overall riverplay which is very hard to counter/exploit. From a strictly EV point of view, you should have a somewhat polarized betting range here. You either have top pair+ or you have nothing. Being too polarized is however very exploitable against thinking opponents, especially if you play them regularly. If you make the bet with weak middle pair sometimes, you will be able to make more valuebets on the river and possibly bluff more if you pick your spots well. It's all about fitting your overall game.

[/ QUOTE ]

ft

[1o BoY]

Yer i see your point but instead of worrying about them gaining info mix up how you play and use there image of you to your advantage...

[Suwalski]

uhm isn't it like this thing called "Showdown tax" ? or have i completly misunderstood?

[schwza]

i would say meta / information / etc plays are usually about .1% as important as you want them to be.

[Gamblor]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how you play, but it doesn't many orbits for anyone with a brain to figure out I'm not only raising premium hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

My regular live full-ring game is one where the players know to play "good cards" and "good draws", they know to fold "bad cards" and "bad draws". My opponents are capable of spotting a maniac, but are otherwise not smart enough to realize that someone with a tight reputation like me (which i've cultivated through basically complaining that i never get dealt a hand, despite raising more than my fair share preflop), who is raising a lot of hands is not just getting a lot of great starting hands.

The short of it is, they, to a man, think i'm a tight player and they keep calling preflop and folding to any big bets from the flop onwards.

Does this change the answer?