NL500: QQ OOP on a low flop (poker 101 series)

[Janis N.]

NL500 5-handed.

Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and $590.
CO is nitty multitabling regnit 20/8.3/1.2 over 1k hands and coincidentally also has $590. I have no reason to believe he will 3bet me light.

Hero raises to $17.50, CO raises to $60, 3 folds, Hero calls $60.

Flop 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($127.50)

Hero checks, CO bets $105, Hero shoves...

I basically thought this was standard and little other way to play as 4betting preflop folds out all worse hands and folding is superweak. If I call flop then pot is $337.5 with $425 behind and betting any turn commits me while checking turn lets AK/JJ get 2 more cards free if he is so inclined.

But then stoved this and I'm only 51% against his betting range and only 29% against his calling range (assuming 50% of JJ hands call - maybe an incorrect optimistic assumption).

So obviously I've got something fairly fundamental completely wrong.

[ QUOTE ]

Board: 6s 5s 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.330% 51.52% 02.82% 17850 975.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 45.670% 42.85% 02.82% 14849 975.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


[/ QUOTE ][ QUOTE ]

Board: 6s 5s 3h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.353% 24.95% 04.40% 3952 697.50 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 70.647% 66.24% 04.40% 10493 697.50 { QQ+, JcJh, JdJh, JhJs }


[/ QUOTE ]

[swisssteve]

either shove or just call flop and c/f turn if he bets. if he does not bet turn, openshove any river which is not A or K.

[Janis N.]

Openshoving a blank turn/river achieves what exactly?

Can you go into more detail behind the thinking behind the line you recommend?

[Jurrr]

Such is the price of being OOP. I like shoving, but would be interested in other peoples opinions.

[FishSticks]

I don't play in this game, but I would assume if he calls the flop c/r you're boned here always. I think JJ from a nitty reg might fold here. Maybe he has AsKs for a race if you're lucky.

This guys stats to me suggest also that he might not 3bet AK preflop. I know that sounds nonstandard, but I see 8% PFR's just call AK preflop plenty. This doesn't look good for you either.

Also, this guy's stats suggest to me that if he doesn't have KK+, he will probably check the turn to you. Yah, you're risking a 6 out draw to let AK catch up - but someone this nitty probably is going to play straightforward and I think his turn play will generally give his hand away.

I do think you're in trouble here though if it comes to playing for stacks.

[Hince]

I keep trying to come up with another way to play this, but shoving seems to be the best option given the way the hand was played so far.

There was something bothering me... how is this flop situation different from the situation we are in preflop?

The only thing that I see that is different is that the pot has gotten much larger. And this is a rather significant difference.

When we opt to just call preflop, we have the option of getting away from many bad flops while the pot is still small. Once we get to a blank flop and he bets, our situation is simular to the one we find ourselves in preflop, except for the large difference that the pot is very large. At this point we should be trying to protect our hand and shove.

The only place where this becomes a worse option is if his 3 betting range is extremely narrow. It's questionable weather he stacks off with anything we beat here. I think it's also questionable if he ever 3 bets with AK. In a case like this, I think it might be better to just call and c/f the turn as I doubt an opponent like this he is double barrelling with a worse hand, or calling with a worse hand.

Edit: it seems like I am saying two different things here, but I think it depends on how nitty this guy is.

[xxSTWxx]

8%PFR players don't generally 3 bet w less than QQ, maybe AK, but thats debatable.

I call PF basically just looking to set mine.

If you were sure his 3 betting range includes AK, then I guess you could call the flop and see if he bets the turn (which he won't with AK). If you do that, you'll very rarely get anything from him on the river.

So I come back to calling PF for set value and c/f the flop otherwise....

[Janis N.]

Results - he had JJ and called. I'm still not happy about the hand; I'm leaning towards c/c flop c/f turn line as a better one than mine; even if he bluffs me out with JJ on the turn.

[frinxor]

if you're putting his range at JJ+, AK, why not fold preflop?