50NL: AA I'm completely lost

[Splossy]

I wouldn't bet so large on the flop. I know everyone is always saying bet pot when there are draws out there but many players will call a pot bet with a FD anyway. I think you can get the same done with a smaller bet and get a pair or paired K to call. On the turn I'm not all that worried about the diamond since he doesn't appear to be calling for a diamond draw. It's possible it puts him on a FD but probably not. Yes I'd bet but smaller - c.13 into a c.23 pot.

[fees]

shovel

[ReptileHouse]

You're ahead here very, very often. If you're losing, it's usually to KQ. At this level, villains will show up here with KT, KJ quite often and not be able to fold even to huge strength. Stuff like As7s is also very possible. He's shown zero strength so far and given you no reason to believe your hand is no good.

If you have a read that he's aggro with missed draws, a check/call to induce is fine, but "isn't overly active post flop" doesn't much sound like the bluffy sort. Don't get tricky unless you have a good reason to do so. Just play straightforwardly and value bet your hand.

Just shove it in the middle and get called by worse hands. If he shows up with better this time, good for him.

edit: your bet sizing is fine as long as you intended to get it all in by the river.

[Wondercall]

Thanks for the replies. I checked the river after going with my read and putting him on a busted fd. He pushed so I got what I wanted. I snap called and he showed 777. I never expected him to limp 77 so well played by him I guess.

[monkover]

shove and c/c are pretty close imo...

[ReptileHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
shove and c/c are pretty close imo...

[/ QUOTE ]

No, they're really not. Villain is far more likely to check behind with hands we beat and only bet hands that beat us. On the other hand, he's very likely to call with hands he would not bet. By betting, we lose the same amount when behind as with a c/c line, but we win more when ahead. If we check this river, it should not be with the intention of calling a shove.

[Capone]

I like the shove here.

[Wondercall]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shove and c/c are pretty close imo...

[/ QUOTE ]

No, they're really not. Villain is far more likely to check behind with hands we beat and only bet hands that beat us. On the other hand, he's very likely to call with hands he would not bet. By betting, we lose the same amount when behind as with a c/c line, but we win more when ahead. If we check this river, it should not be with the intention of calling a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post reptile. My only argument is that if we go with our read and put him on a busted draw, hes never calling any sort of bet on the river. Checking gives him a chance to bet at a pot he can only win if he bets. Is this line of thinking wrong?

[ReptileHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking gives him a chance to bet at a pot he can only win if he bets. Is this line of thinking wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's read based. You characterized this villain as relatively passive. To me that says he's not going to be bluff shoving with his missed draws often enough.

Specifically, he'll need to have and bluff with his missed draws more often than he has a calling hand that we beat for c/c to be better than just betting. I generally need a pretty strong read on villain that he both plays his draws passively and that he's bluffy when checked to.

In other words, your thinking was good, but not against this opponent.

[infinite_loop]

I think I have to check. Though I'm not sure it's really ever inducing a bluff.