180 Man Ballers: General Theoretical Question

[VespaRally]

I can’t remember the exact stack sizes, but I had been playing somewhat aggressively and really active the last few hands. The table had been playing really passive since we were close to the bubble. There were ~ 22 left.

I was UTG with like 25-30 BBs or something and opened to 3x with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. It folded around to the BB who I had no reads on and no stats. He moved in for his whole stack, giving me 8-to-5 for my money. If I called and lost, I would be crippled.

My initial read was that he probably had something like 88 or better and that he wouldn’t be moving over the top with many worse unpaired hands than mine, if at all. I gave him the benefit of the doubt and mucked, realizing that it was pretty close if that was a good estimate of his range. Also, as I said, I had been stealing blinds pretty easily so I didn’t really want to take a close gamble just yet.

After doing some analysis though, I feel that this should be called and that it isn’t close. The reason is that if he does have this range 100% of the time it is only a small mistake. But let’s say instead of 7% of all hands, he is much looser and will move with like any pair, A8s or better, ATo+ and some suited Broadway cards (14% of all hands). If he moves with this range only 5% of the time, my call becomes +EV, worth a few chips.

If he moves in with that range a quarter of the time, a call is worth 40 chips.

Later on, he open-shoved w/ 25o UTG for like 12BBs 7-handed and I realized after the fact how huge AJs was against this guy. Granted, it’s a lot different than him moving over the top of my UTG raise, but it still has to lead to some doubt about how often I can be confident that he is moving in with a range that makes my call a mistake with AJs.

Sometimes I’m in the zone and I have a good read on all the players and will insta-call with AJs getting 8-to-5, but this time, readless, I definitely made a mistake by mucking. Against the general 180-man players, is this ever not a mistake?

[markbris]

I think its a big mistake to call personally. No reason to gamble here I don't think. Yea he could be a moron but you dont know that yet and the fact that he pushed on your UTG raise wiht a stack that was not short at all. I think this is the biggest factor and I think you have to fold. I guess it depends on whether you think people are morons until proven otherwise or the opposite.

[Hello Nasty]

Fold. If the 25o hand happened 1st I would probably call.

[kenny7]

I'd fold here,a call is too much of a gamble imo.Even tho he moved w his 2-5,I would think he would respect your UTG raise enough to have a good hand here,unless of course,you'd been pushing like crazy. Another reason for folding is,like you said,table is pretty tight as you are close to bubble,in my experience,this is when people tighten up big time. Was his 2-5 push before or after you were in the money? If after,then i'm even more certain that this is a fold.

[APipeDream]

With no reads, I'd say you're outkicked, against a pair, etc. Basically, an unknown "standard range" beats you most of the time here. Fold.

For your second question about it being a mistake, it is absolutely necessary to call this sometimes...actually, a lot of the time. Just not here.

[Salmo Trutta]

Fold for all of the above reasons.

[gcDanno]

Easy Fold. 50% of the time you are going to see AK here. You are probably a favorite close to ZERO pct of the time in my experience. In a full table, I fold AJ preflop utg here most of the time.

[APipeDream]

[ QUOTE ]
In a full table, I fold AJ preflop utg here most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you do this on the bubble of a 180-man MTT, please let me know when you play. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You absolutely have to be pushing the people who have no understanding of playing the bubble, and raising MORE hands UTG is necessary here, not less. You will build a very good stack this way going into the $$$. You also have a MUCH better feel of the other player's holding if you get pushed back. This is the time to completely take over the table if at all possible.

And actually, I'm guessing you woudn't put that in this situation given the fact that it's not a full table (22 left), but more like 6 or 7 handed.

[Sherman]

Its actually difficult to tell what the specific action was.

Exactly how big was his stack? How much would you have been left with if you called and lost?

What do you mean by UTG? 7 or 8 handed?

All important information.

Anyhow, I often raise with AJ with the intention of folding to re-raises by deep stacks or big shoves.

[gcDanno]

Yes, i did say Full table.

As for the bubble of a 20/180, how many people really care? I know that I don't. Heck, I'm much more likely to resteal at this time, especially against a player that is trying to "control" the table. For the 20/180s, the top 3 are the only spots that matter. I'd rather have 1 top 3 finish and 2 bubbles, than 3 that finish in the 10-18 range.

While I'm not #1 in 20/180s (shaundeeb), I'm pretty satified with my results (sharkscope is your friend).