NL50: QQ from BB after a 3bet in front

[Albert Moulton]

I think fold is best.

If you push and everybody folds, then you are probably up against TT-AA/AQ+ in the SB for ~$16 after the rake, giving you ~55.038% equtiy meaning that you win about eight bucks from this move, on average when everybody else folds.

But when you get called you either UTG+1 or CO when they have QQ-AA,AK you now only have 32.680% equity for the main pot, and 40.207% for the rest of your stack in the side pot.

I haven't tried to do all the math for all the possible combinations, but I can't believe that pushing is much better than neutral EV if it isn't actually -EV.

Calling for set value is being too optimistic since you'd have to fold if UTG+1 pushed, and there is no guarantee that you'd get the rest of your stack in, get called and win even if you flop your set from the BB.

So, I'd fold and let UTG+1 and CO duke it out.