Bubble situation

[Rodolphe]

It was a live tournament.
Villain is known to be a "good player".
No others read on him since we have just begin the final table.

Tournament with 70 players. 7 places are paid and we are 8 in the final table.
Average 26000
Blinds 750/1500

UTG folds
UTG+1 folds
MP (35000) call 1500.
HJ folds
CO folds
BTN folds
Hero (SB) (20000) opens 9c 9d and raise to 5500.
BB folds.
MP goes all-in for 35000.
Hero ?

Villain's move is very strange. What is his hand range here ? Knowing that he is not a donk. Could he make a move here since I give him a ton of fold equity if he push ?

[levAA]

Some players do this with high PP only, but most of the time the range is much wider - most PP, AK.

With 99 having invested nearly 1/3 of your stack already I would call this.

I think a good advice for these kind of situations is to make a plan what you will do against a push before you raise. If you plan to fold to a push it is better to flat call with your 99 and mine for a set, where you are still deep enough to do this.

[pokerg1]

i would call too but since its live you dont get as many hands as online so he prob has a good hand or a AK and MAYBE AQ

[Marduk]

i just ship pf since you have 13bb and there's a limper.

his range is super polarized to like qq+/ak and hands where he wanted to see a cheap flop by limping and is now spite shoving since you wouldn't let him. as played, it's hard to find a fold with so many of your chips in the pot. you need about 34% to break even and with a range of qq+ and ak you're 36% to win. if you add just a few hands that he might be spite shoving (22, JcTc, 4d5d), it's basically a flip (you're 44%). live payouts are typically very top heavy, so you need to gamble if you want to get to the top 3 with your stack.

if the table has been playing super tight, another possible option is to fold and show the hand. if everyone is an old live nit, they'll think you're a tight player because you fold pocket pairs or something like that. by folding, you keep the bubble intact and can shove frequently with your tight image and own their blinds since they're too afraid to finish out of the money and are folding way too many hands. i can't really say if this is better because i don't know the table dynamics, but a case can certainly be made for preserving your stack instead of calling it off.

[Proofrock]

I either jam or complete preflop. I only raise < all-in here if I can confidently raise/call or raise/fold (i.e., I make a plan before I raise).