*** OFFICIAL 10/07/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (CHI @ GB) ***

[Alzee]

[ QUOTE ]
Aside from the smiley-face, I don't see any substantive distinction between that sentence and the rest of your analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

From now on i will stick to bullet points
* CHI = struggling offense
* CHI = (usually exceptional) but injured defense
* CHI = no good options at QB

* GB = great momentum headed into a home game against rival
* GB = Favre playing excellent thus far
* GB = much improved defense with good pass rush

GB -3 (2u)

[silentbob]

As I was saying...the bullet points aren't any less BSP in tone or content.

(for the record, I am staying away from this game)

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree with the reasoning that people put behind BSP picks/BSP counter-picks. It makes no sense to not make what seems to be a logical pick just because "the public" likes the pick ...I understand fading the public when you get an adv from them pushing the lines for your sake,

[/ QUOTE ]

The whole point is that the public has moved the line past fair value. KC +12 v Chi, and ATL & BUF +3.5 at home vs weak opponents last week are prime examples.

I think there are enough Bears fans and 'Bears will bounce-back' bettors to keep this from being a BSP pick. Also, if it moves to -3.5 less people will like GB.

[LogistX]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Aside from the smiley-face, I don't see any substantive distinction between that sentence and the rest of your analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

From now on i will stick to bullet points
* CHI = struggling offense
* CHI = (usually exceptional) but injured defense
* CHI = no good options at QB

* GB = great momentum headed into a home game against rival
* GB = Favre playing excellent thus far
* GB = much improved defense with good pass rush

GB -3 (2u)

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with your logic is that you are operating under the assumption that you can set the fair line better than Vegas. I'm not on this game, but whether you win this one or not, that is a dangerous assumption.

[thelyingthief]

i hear all the reasons for betting GB at -3, and for the life of me cannot find any reason to bet on the bears; except for one thing. it seems to me, this is a line one needs to examine from a different point of view:

WHY IS THIS LINE SO LOW??? pardon me, but my nose is interfering with my greed here.

take the bears :^/

[Alzee]

Perhaps I don't have what you consider "sound logic" when analyzing games, I realize a few of you consider yourself to be professionals in sports betting and that's cool. That's why i hang around here because I love seeing all the different strategies people have for analyzing games. It's a lot like poker, all sorts of different styles of play and nobody can say that someone's style doesn't work if they keep winning.

Sorry you don't like my analysis on the GB CHI game, maybe I should spend more time explaining my thoughts... But every week I analyze NFL games, and every week I win so to each his own.

[Alzee]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree with the reasoning that people put behind BSP picks/BSP counter-picks. It makes no sense to not make what seems to be a logical pick just because "the public" likes the pick ...I understand fading the public when you get an adv from them pushing the lines for your sake,

[/ QUOTE ]

The whole point is that the public has moved the line past fair value. KC +12 v Chi, and ATL & BUF +3.5 at home vs weak opponents last week are prime examples.

I think there are enough Bears fans and 'Bears will bounce-back' bettors to keep this from being a BSP pick. Also, if it moves to -3.5 less people will like GB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for explaining Naj, it's helpful when people offer further examples rather than just insults.

[NajdorfDefense]

I would be ever so grateful if you changed your avatar, or at least rotated amongst a few. I think it will give me a seizure.

[agencia1]

im in for 250 for GB -3
sounds like chicago gets guys back on d but i like gb at home and the offense is rolling. chicago better at qb w griese but rb situation is pretty poor

[zOrO2k6]

95% People over Packers
50/50 in Money Lines.

Bears +3

that's just my opinion, ain't touch this game, gl agencia1.