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#1
10-07-2007, 07:28 PM
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### NCAA Sunday NMST +24.5 @ Boise St O/U 62 ###
I got
NMST +25.5 @ Boise St bet 2.2u to win 2u available at bookmaker opened 22.5 preseason, I had it -14??? my models have this one 21,19.5,15.5, and 14 even with a large HFA for the smurf turf! While sagarin has 18.5 +HFA overall and 21 +HFA predictor, it's only 8 +HFA on the elo-chess. Elo-chess is the only thing that is unbiased right now. The rest of sagarin are still bayesian and have alot to do with last year. I'm 29-26 ATS with road dogs this year 
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#2
10-07-2007, 07:39 PM
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Re: ### NCAA Sunday NMST +24.5 @ Boise St O/U 62 ###
I must have alot of faders... line plummeting after I post that
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#3
10-07-2007, 07:44 PM
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Re: ### NCAA Sunday NMST +24.5 @ Boise St O/U 62 ###
No fade here [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
NMST +25.5 2 Units Under 62.5 1 Unit
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#4
10-07-2007, 07:47 PM
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Re: ### NCAA Sunday NMST +24.5 @ Boise St O/U 62 ###
Thanks for the pick. I'm blind for 1/2 a unit @ +26 at Olympic based on your recommendation and it gives me something else to follow tonight [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Good luck!
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#5
10-07-2007, 07:56 PM
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Re: ### NCAA Sunday NMST +24.5 @ Boise St O/U 62 ###
NMSU's starting QB was listed as doubtful (hurt his ribs last week) and hasn't practiced all week. Anyone know if he is playing? That may explain the line movement.
Perhaps there's value in the under?
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#6
10-07-2007, 08:03 PM
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Re: ### NCAA Sunday NMST +24.5 @ Boise St O/U 62 ###
Chase Holbrook is playing
is ribs are bruised, but he is expected to go he will probably throw 50+ times
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#7
10-07-2007, 08:18 PM
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Re: ### NCAA Sunday NMST +24.5 @ Boise St O/U 62 ###
I'm thinking this is ESPN's 24th best announcing team
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#9
10-07-2007, 08:44 PM
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Re: ### NCAA Sunday NMST +24.5 @ Boise St O/U 62 ###
did you hear Corso yesterday in the 2 hour morning pregame marathon?
When asked who he was picking in Wisconsin-Illinois, he said something along the lines of "Everyone likes Wisconsin here. The guys in Vegas have Illinois favored? That makes no sense. Seems like somebodies know something we all don't know. I'm going to go with those somebodies. I'm picking Illinois." it's almost like he did a BSP pick
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#10
10-07-2007, 08:52 PM
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Re: ### NCAA Sunday NMST +24.5 @ Boise St O/U 62 ###
Corso is a square?? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
This game is a damn joke. Got half a unit on the +25 and +26 which looks pretty much like a unit thrown away. GG NMST! GG!
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