*** OFFICIAL 10/07/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (CHI @ GB) ***

[Performify]

Chicago at Green Bay -- Sunday night, 8:15pm EST

[NajdorfDefense]

I'll take GB -120/-3 here for 1u. The Bears are in disarray, they don't have a good QB, they are injured, and the GB defense has been stellar throughout [all this is well known, of course]. The Bears 'need' a win more, but GB's talent should be able to garner a FG victory.
Given that the line is -3.5 at 3 major sites already, I'll jump on here. I think only the large # of Chi fans have kept it at 3 this long.

Take away Hester's 2 return TDs, and their scoring looks even worse. I took KC and DET vs Chi last 2 weeks, see no reason to stop at this price. Like Philly, they are overrated, unlike PHL at least they are getting 3.

[21SuicideKing21]

I agree with all of NajadorofDefense's arguments, and you also have to like the fact that its SNF in Lambeau Field and its just going to be "Brett Favre" night. So I really like 2u for the Packers in this one, granted it seems alittle weird that the Packers are only favored 3 @ home against the struggling NFC Champs.

[kaboshedx]

Naj I like your analysis and I like your pick - however as soon as I saw this game I just immediately thought of public perception.

Chi town is down, really down, and after 4 weeks of [censored] shouldn't the public see this? And playing a 4-0 romantic Pacers team I feel like this game almost has BSP written all over it...Bears moved the ball last week and are getting 4 defensive starters back if I am not mistaken. If Griese can keep the ball away _granted, big if) from the other team I can see the game staying within a field goal. Right now I'm leaning towards Chi +3.5

[theclock]

Good analysis Naj,

Couldn't agree more. GB -3 at Lambeau seems like a bargain. Griese, Grossman, is there really that big a difference? Griese had many opportunities to shine in his career. He hasn't pulled through at all. Why start now?

Normally I follow bankroll management rules but opportunities like this don't come around too often. I'll have a decent chunk of the roll on GB. Putting all the eggs in one basket is not smart, back to the grind if they lose. :-(

[psuasskicker]

The odds are saying Chi is on even footing with GB on a neutral field, and I just don't see that. I'm on GB -3.5 and considering another unit GB -3 as well.

Eventually teams will stop kicking to Hester, right? I mean, they have to, right? Tell me it's not better to give that crappy-a$$ offense the ball at the 40 every time rather than kick it to Hester...

- C -

[NajdorfDefense]

Kabosh, I agree that I would not lay 3.5 here v the Bears. If the Bears are 100% healthy this week, I like my bet a lot less, however:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=090...p;confirm=true
Dvoracek and Brown are out for the year with ACL tears, 2 backups are out for the year, and Vasher is listed as Doubtful. They are clearly missing solid Def starters.

Harris, Briggs, AA all questionable.

[kyro]

Everybody seems to be on the Packers except those saying "BSP?"

Somebody explain to me why the line is where it is. I don't want to hear who the better pick is or anything like that, I just want to know why the books seem to agree on 3-3.5.

[droopy0021]

[ QUOTE ]
Kabosh, I agree that I would not lay 3.5 here v the Bears. If the Bears are 100% healthy this week, I like my bet a lot less, however:

Dvoracek and Brown are out for the year with ACL tears, 2 backups are out for the year, and Vasher is listed as Doubtful. They are clearly missing solid Def starters.

Harris, Briggs, AA all questionable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll give my BSP analysis. I'm a big Bear fan (living in WI) and will be attending Sunday. I feel GB -3 is a good bet. The Bears are very banged up on D and the offense has been bad.

Vasher
Brad Biggs, of the Chicago Sun-Times, reports Chicago Bears CB Nathan Vasher (groin) was held out of practice Wednesday, Oct. 3. He is not expected to play Week 5.
Tillman
Brad Biggs, of the Chicago Sun-Times, reports Chicago Bears CB Charles Tillman (ankle) was held out of practice Wednesday, Oct. 3, but did some running on the side.
Archuletta
Has a broken hand and if he plays will likely play with a cast. He hasn't been able to cover anyone in a couple years and this year hasn't been able to wrap up. Now he has a broken hand.
T Harris
Sprained knee 2 weeks ago, played vs. Lions and is expected to play this week.
Briggs
Hasn't practiced and didn't look good running sprints Tuesday. Hamstring injury, DNP vs. Lions.

Kitna was 20-24 vs. Bears. Favre is playing very well this year, utilizing quick passing that will make it tough on Bears front 4 to put pressure and blitzes won't get to him in time to stop slants. GB is getting V Morency more involved in the offense since he came back last week so running game might have a pulse (not that it needs one if Favre continues to play at a high level after ugly Week 1 where offensive line didn't block).

Griese should be better. Benson is looking to be a tool unfortunately. The o-line for Bears is aging poorly and that is a big problem with running game. Relying on D Hester to have 300+ yards in the return game (like he did vs. Detroit) will leave Bears wanting. Bears WRs lead the NFL (unofficial stats) with 16 drops. Many of those were key vs. Dallas, one should've been a TD (Berrian) and one by Muhammad that would've been a 1st down and next play....INT.

I don't see any reason statistically or logically the Bears cover the 3. Could also be why betting on NFL is crazy and some magic mojo or trap game moves Bears to win.

[NajdorfDefense]

2u on GB-3/-120
6-2-1 ATS, 0-3ml, +3.1u, props -1.7u