WCOOP ME - Boat's sailing on flush river. check or bet???

[NYWalker]

WCOOP ME
Blinds 400/800/50.

UTG+1 limps, hero limp MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] villain limps from CO, SB, BB completes.

5 players Pot 4450.

Flop 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG+1 bets 800, Hero raise to 3800. (Hero 55K), villain (41K) smooth calls. All others fold.

2 players, pot 12850.

Turn A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero bet 5500, villain calls.

2 players Pot 23850.

River 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero???

(villain has 32K behind)

[Beachman42]

My Level 0/1 thinking is "Villian has a hand now or won't put anything else in the pot anyways." I value bet 15-18K and insta-call his push. If he has AA/JJ then "NH, sir"

[gobboboy]

I'm cramming here because he doesn't fold an 8 or a flush.

[NYWalker]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has AA/JJ then "NH, sir"

[/ QUOTE ]

He limps pf...

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he has AA/JJ then "NH, sir"

[/ QUOTE ]

He limps pf...

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah...and? doesn't rule those 2 hands out

bombing river would be nice

[Beachman42]

LOL if you have never limped AA or JJ. I don't do it often, but villian had position on all but the button, so IF he were to limp a monster, that's a pretty good spot. After the flop, he keeps calling. That's why I bet the river. If he's a w/t donk, then he *may* call 50% of his stack. If he has a made hand, 15-18K sets up the obv. push from villian. Either way, value bet the riv.

Oh, and if you think a push is more likely to be called than a value bet, then by all means push.

[Crash0veride]

AA, JJ is def. not in his raise after Hero limps I think anyone with position raise AA, JJ every time here.

[NYWalker]

Let's put AA/JJ on the side.


[ QUOTE ]

Oh, and if you think a push is more likely to be called than a value bet, then by all means push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point.

No matter what, I'm not folding.
So, the question is how to extract the most from all his ranges.... this includes
1. shove of a flush/smaller boat, and
2. bluff from weaker hands, and
3. call from weaker hands....
4. any unexplained retard plays.... (or villain's misread of our hand)

what's the best river decision???

Deep stack post-flop poker is fun!

Edit: when villain moved to the table, I found out from pokerdb, he finished 2nd in one of Sep's Sunday millions.

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
but villian had position on all but the button, so IF he were to limp a monster, that's pretty much the worst spot in the history of bad spots .

[/ QUOTE ]

[mwalsh2020]

highly unlikely villain has a flush esp if he's a decent player, why would he call after an utg+1 bet and a raise by you on a paired board with only a flush draw... i suppose you could give him the t9hh or the nut flush draw but i think its far more likely that he has an 8 and is trying not to get too crazy with it. I doubt he'll be that scared of the flush but it is one more hand that he probably can't beat since i'm guessing he has something like 78/89/t8s. I would bet 15k and hope for a call, but i wouldn't expect him to push.