Interesting Super Bowl bet?

ClarkNasty · #1 11-22-2007, 01:31 PM

So, I saw the following two lines today:

AFC -15.5 NFC Super Bowl
Patriots -200 win Super Bowl.

Any reason not to lay the -200 and take the 15.5?

NajdorfDefense · #2 11-22-2007, 01:37 PM

Yes

Daliman · #3 11-22-2007, 04:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So, I saw the following two lines today:

AFC -15.5 NFC Super Bowl
Patriots -200 win Super Bowl.

Any reason not to lay the -200 and take the 15.5?

[/ QUOTE ]
If Brady and Moss get hurt, how you like this bet now?

ClarkNasty · #4 11-22-2007, 05:26 PM

Then you've got a huge overlay on the NFC side?

I'm not suggesting this is risk free. But assuming that one bought both of those bets at the best available price right now, it seems to me that it might be +EV.

Thremp · #5 11-22-2007, 06:59 PM

If you feel they are errant you can do a bastard arbitrage.

Future is -184 at Pinny for those who want a better price.

NajdorfDefense · #6 11-22-2007, 07:20 PM

-165 if you want a better price

LOL at Pats 67% to win SB is +EV.

Daliman · #7 11-22-2007, 10:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Then you've got a huge overlay on the NFC side?

I'm not suggesting this is risk free. But assuming that one bought both of those bets at the best available price right now, it seems to me that it might be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Uh, no, you'd have the exact opposite.

psuasskicker · #8 11-22-2007, 11:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
LOL at Pats 67% to win SB is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

BobJoeJim · #9 11-22-2007, 11:37 PM

Hmm, if their odds of winning each of the three playoff games is identical, 67% to win the Super Bowl means they are about 87.4% to win each of the three games? Yeah, I'm going to put myself squarely in the "LOL" camp.

brendanb438 · #10 11-23-2007, 12:31 AM

el oh el