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#21
10-07-2007, 11:34 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
If he always has a set and always bet calls when we turn a flush.
.19 we turn flush and we win .78 when he doesn't house up of 746 for total pot .81 times 88 when we miss and fold turn then .19 times .22 times 746 when he houses it for a total ev of 8 bucks. Guess my math could be off, since I just made it up off of intuition and not a formula [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 
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#22
10-07-2007, 11:35 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I thought you had to do the total pot size [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] In that case this would be the calc for a bet on a coinflip, both wages $100. 0.5*200 - 0.5*100 = +$50 You could do a calc with the total potsize, but in that case you need to assume you're always losing the money you put in the pot, but win it back the times you outdraw him. [/ QUOTE ] What? You win 200 50% of the time for 100 and you lose 50% of 200 for -100 for EV of 0. edit didn't look at your last sentence which is how i do my mental ev cals i guess
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#24
10-07-2007, 11:41 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
If he always has a set and always bet calls when we turn a flush. .19 we turn flush and we win .78 when he doesn't house up of 746 for total pot .81 times 88 when we miss and fold turn then .19 times .22 times 746 when he houses it for a total ev of 8 bucks. Guess my math could be off, since I just made it up off of intuition and not a formula [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I'm in particular interested in the bolded part, which basically would mean that potsize of a pot we don't win would matter in terms of our ev.
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#25
10-07-2007, 11:44 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
Also there are times when he checks the turn, and bets small enough to give us enough odds to make up what we lost on the flop call. [/ QUOTE ] True. But I don't think he'll check a set often on a non spade turn. I think the assumptions are pretty generous. Never folding when we hit and never having a better fd.
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#27
10-07-2007, 11:47 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Also there are times when he checks the turn, and bets small enough to give us enough odds to make up what we lost on the flop call. [/ QUOTE ] True. But I don't think he'll check a set often on a non spade turn. I think the assumptions are pretty generous. Never folding when we hit and never having a better fd. [/ QUOTE ] Well if we assume he has a better flush draws, which we're big favorites against, it's not against all logic that he could have a lower flush draw which is almost drawing dead. Or a hand like 65 where we're flipping against, or a straight draw. I don't have pokerstove on my mac, but I imagine a range of 66,55,65,78ss,couple combos of A/xs, then one or 2 combos of other flush draws seems fair. Also, the scenario outlined in the EV calcs is completely absurd imo, and I was just curious about the math.
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#28
10-07-2007, 11:49 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he always has a set and always bet calls when we turn a flush. .19 we turn flush and we win .78 when he doesn't house up of 746 for total pot .81 times 88 when we miss and fold turn then .19 times .22 times 746 when he houses it for a total ev of 8 bucks. Guess my math could be off, since I just made it up off of intuition and not a formula [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I'm in particular interested in the bolded part, which basically would mean that potsize of a pot we don't win would matter in terms of our ev. [/ QUOTE ] Huh, you don't count the times you make a flush and he redraws in your EV calc? Anyway, I remember one of your other posts was wrong mathematically which is the only reason I'm dubious at all. edit I guess that's already included in the leftmost calculation which would just stand to make it higher EV i'm just totally confused
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#29
10-07-2007, 11:54 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
I don't understand how this calculation is wrong then.
19% of the time (.19) we turn a flush and of that 19% we win the entire pot of 747 78% of the time (.78) when he misses his redraw. 81% of the time (.81) we call another 88 dollars and lose it since we're folding all turns. 110.7-71.3= +39 Now, I may be horribly wrong I'm just wondering why? I don't see any scenario unaccounted for since we have no further turn decisions.
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#30
10-07-2007, 11:54 AM
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Re: NL200 TP and flush draw MW DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
Well if we assume he has a better flush draws, which we're big favorites against, it's not against all logic that he could have a lower flush draw which is almost drawing dead. [/ QUOTE ] Not that I think he'll have a fd often, but when he takes this line with a fd on the flop I don't think he'll slow down on the turn so unless we're planning to stack off on a blank it doesn't matter much. And the times he's actually cold check/3-betting the flop with a fd deep I'm pretty confident it is with the nut fd or 87ss a huge portion.
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