are TURBOS a CRAPSHOOT

[Double Ice]

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I can promise you. With 100% certainty, without a shadow of a doubt, that you do not finish in the top 10 of 45 man MTT's 80% of the time.

You really should write down some sessions, see how far off this number is(I suspect...quite a bit) and then re-evaluate whether you think your playing these properly.

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I have a decent record at 45 man MTTs. To be honest to OP, I think you are not shoving in late position enough. Alot of players think that certain games are "high variance" to make themselves feel better about dumping off money in said games. I can tell you solidly that I believe that 45 man MTTs have the lowest variance, in part because your edges are so big playing against casual players, that any variance is quickly negated. I honestly believe it is worse than 3.5 standard deviations from the mean to be losing after 2 weeks of playing $60/45s (for me.) So, in short, and with all honesty, if you feel like its a crapshoot, it probably means you suck (at the format), or you have not played enough (I think about 500 games is sufficent to have a very good idea how strong you are in those.) Playing 45 man MTTs, I have never seen worse play in my entire life, and I have played nano-cash at PartyPoker.

It is true that he is probably making the top 2 tables atleast 45% the time though. I think if I just tried to make the top 2 tables, I could do this probably better than 55% - but I have no stats to back that up. Under normal playing conditions (playing for maximum +$EV) there is not much change in my strategy, and I probably rate to be at the top two tables atleast 45 and probably closer to 50%, though.

AWice