NL25 Hand Reading

[Grunch]

For the sake of argument, let's say I don't have any cards.

The opponent is completely unknown, but this is FTP NL25.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $26.80
UTG+1: $15.20
CO: $6.45
Button: $14.80
SB: $36.05
Grunch: $25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Grunch is BB with Two Cards (maybe)

UTG calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB folds, Grunch checks.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($0.85, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Grunch bets $0.85</font>, UTG calls, Button folds.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($2.55, 2 players)
Grunch checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $2</font>, Grunch ... ?

What's your read on this betting pattern? Can we make a read?

[Fly]

I'd say the most likely hand is a pair of queens with a weak kicker.

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say the most likely hand is a pair of queens with a weak kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I thought too.

Let's say I make a pot-sized check-raise. Good/bad? Remember, I don't have any cards.

[DWarrior]

You're gonna blow a guy off what looks like a pair or better? Does not sound +ev.

[RIDGE45]

Looks like Q9...no flop raise - maybe worried about kicker. Oh, howdy, paired my kicker on the turn. Or he had two pair all along and was being tricky and slowplaying...But some type of pair/two pair hand I would imagine.

[Grunch]

Here's another pattern.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $62.05
Grunch: $24.65
Button: $33.45
SB: $5.20
BB: $39.65

Pre-flop: (5 players) Grunch is CO with X X

UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Grunch raises to $1</font>, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($2.1, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Grunch bets $2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $4</font>, Grunch ... ?

What do you think the opponent's plan for the hand is?

Here's what I think in white below

<font color="white">Opponent likes his hand. I have zero FE, even if I push.</font>

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
You're gonna blow a guy off what looks like a pair or better? Does not sound +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often is it better than a pair, and how good is the pair usually?

[RIDGE45]

Opponent either has a weak Ace or a pair of Kings (QK, etc) and wants to "see where he is at"/see a cheap showdwon. He is unsure of his hand strength relative to yours.

[RIDGE45]

Or he has a monster.

[SamuraiPlatypus]

min-raise usually indicates monster or huge draw. since there's no real draw there, he probably has a monster.