set facing overpush on river (150BB stacks)

_Apollo_ · #1 10-30-2007, 12:08 PM

Villain is a regular, playing 25/10/1.3 over large sample (5k hands)
total AF is 1.3
flop/turn/river AF is: 3.3/2.6/3.6
just to show he is passive preflop but kinda agressive postflop.

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

SB ($100.00)
BB ($255.34)
UTG ($98.25)
MP ($44.00)
Hero ($147.54)
Button ($160.02)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($9.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $8, Button raises to $24.07, Hero calls $16.07.

River: ($57.64) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $131.95 (All-In), Hero has $119 left

I called turn to c/c river but this shove was a little more than expected [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
My image is probably 18/16 and agressive. I was not thinking about folding at first because I would expect him to bet the flop with a flushdraw and don't think he can shove anything but a flush/bluf on this river.
No cbet because it's a bad flop and I expect him to make a move on me a lot here in position.

JFsports · #2 10-30-2007, 12:25 PM

I think this is a fold

Mossberg · #3 10-30-2007, 12:29 PM

his line strikes me as nuts (or close to it), or a bluff. You aren't getting great odds on a call, so I think you need a better read before you can call this ("kinda aggressive postflop" just isn't enough imo).

coolmoedee · #4 10-30-2007, 12:29 PM

I think your stuck calling this IMO. I'd expect to win this over 50% of the time

HighOctane · #5 10-30-2007, 12:32 PM

I think you should have c-bet this flop heads-up. This is a very tough river decision. I would fold it. But if you had c-bet, then you could evaluate if he had a FD. If he is rational though, there is no hand you beat on the river (66, 99, club-club). The only hand you beat is AJ. This is therefore a clear fold.

_Apollo_ · #6 10-30-2007, 12:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only hand you beat is AJ. This is therefore a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
I beat a bluf, he would never push AJ here imo. It's either a bluf or a flush (and most likely nutflush) (like mossberg said)

Cbet is meh, I very often cbet but this seemed like a good hand to mix it up and not cbet for once (oop vs regular on bad flop kinda deepstacked)

HighOctane · #7 10-30-2007, 12:43 PM

The problem is part of the value from raising w/ 22 is fold equity postflop. Why would you not try to take it down. It makes the hand easier to play.

WalStrtWarer · #8 10-30-2007, 01:03 PM

I don't understand not c-betting. You have no idea where button stands, and the second best possible card hits for you and you still are pretty much done. Does anyone agree with a c-bet on flop and double barrel $16 on turn, fold to shove on the turn?

JFsports · #9 10-30-2007, 01:06 PM

I think not cbetting this flop is good. It hits his range fairly hard, and he's also aggro enough to raise with any of the many draws out there.

_Apollo_ · #10 10-30-2007, 01:12 PM

by not cbetting, I'm obviously just giving up because I don't think it's profitable here. Unless I hit my 2-outer or Q/K/A.

I cbet a lot, but when literally all the negative factors are there to not cbet I think it's ok to give up once in a while. OR he hit this flop. OR he will make a move on me since he is in position, deepstacked and the board is not too great. I think he will not fold enough to cbet everytime in this spot.